Brexit now = CETA +/-?
July 7, 2018 at 1:08 pm #22765ParticipantEd P@edps
I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.
The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).
It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.
July 7, 2018 at 1:29 pm #22766ParticipantThe Duke@sgb101Forumite Points: 11,208
The pm and her reps can propose anything she likes, and tell us brits how good it will be. It’s all BS untill someone on the EU side agrees with it.
It very much like me saying I’m going to marry Katy Perry, and getting 100 friends of solicitors to discribe the 100s of ways we will have sex together. It’s all mute untill Katy perry agrees to the marriage.
So at this point in the brexit I don’t really care what any of our politicians of UK economists say, what’s more important is what the EU leaders say.
May’s Point of view and plans are all but irrelevant.it will ultimately come down to accepting of rejecting what ever plan Europe puts in place. We (the country) don’t have a say. We are over a barrel.
Hopefully the final proposal, from the EU not the UK, will come down to another vote. Though I don’t see how they can organise a vote quick enough given the EU will wait to the last min to give us there proposal.July 7, 2018 at 2:42 pm #22769
Recent Opinion Polls have had the Tories between 3% and 5% ahead re voting intentions for the next election. The problem for the Tories is that Tory voters are vastly more likely to be Pro-Brexit than against it. The number of Conservative Party members and voters declaring on the ‘net, since May’s Deal was revealed that they feel betrayed and will not vote Tory again is substantial. Card carrying members are cancelling their DD’s. Others have said they will join UKIP or any True Brexit party that is started. Others are simply saying that they will simply abstain at the next GE. If I were a Tory MP with a majority sub-2,000 I would feel very vulnerable indeed today. The mood afoot seems to be punish the Tories for a betrayal. A pet phrase has even been coined. its ‘Traitory’ (Tory plus Traitor). Many seem especially furious that she showed Merkel the plan before even showing her own cabinet. Which to me certainly seems beyond the pale if its true.
While a lot of it is undoubtedly folk blowing off hot air the Brexit issue is, as we know, highly charged emotionally and I suspect that a significant number will follow through. If even one twentieth of the intentions being voiced turn into reality Corbyn will win the next GE by a landslide exceeding Blair’s of ’97. So folks I suggest Gold. Because if he gets in expect a run on the pound just as quick as the way the Brexiteers in the Cabinet ran away from their own pledges when May said Boo! to them. Could it end up that she has done for the Tories something to exceed that which Clegg did for the Liberals – Decimation. Can’t wait to see the first Voting intentions poll after this weekend.
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.July 7, 2018 at 2:59 pm #22771
If it is a CETA deal plus a bit of Ag & Fish then I cannot see the EU baulking as Canada has set a major precedent. In addition all the Goods &Ag balances favour the EU. The EU has most to lose on any UK tariff scenario. while we have already pretty much already cocked up our European financial side.July 7, 2018 at 3:50 pm #22772ParticipantDave Rice@ricedgForumite Points: 8,327
Always makes me laugh when people (especially Brexiteers) go on about a run on the pound when Corbyn gets in.
We had a massive run on the pound 2 years ago when we voted to leave but that’s all forgotten about now. I’ve even heard Brexiteers saying its all back, it isn’t. Just looked at my FairFX transfers, Oct 2015 1.3594, Sept 2016 1.1388, July 2018 1.1070
So given that all is still rosy in the Brexiteers UK just what do we have to fear? Whatever it is must have happened in the last 2 years. Or is a socialist run on the pound different?
I’ll be in Vienna next week, bet you I never hear the word Brexit once. In all my trips to Europe in the last 2 years only once has it been mentioned. The morning after the vote the hotel receptionist said why? We said no idea, the country has gone mad.
My kids are actively planning to leave in the next 5 years. If Corbyn gets in I’ll definitely follow them. If Boris / Gove gets in I’ll be on the next plane ?
I just hope for a return to the relative, if boring, sanity of a more centralist outlook.July 7, 2018 at 6:10 pm #22777ParticipantBob Williams@bullstuff2Forumite Points: 12,986
This “deal” is absolute BS, very little is going to change as far as I can see, even if the EU accepts it, which I doubt. Watch and listen as Barnier dismisses it. As a Remainer, even I am disappointed. Leaving? No, we are still going to have to go cap in hand to Brussels whenever we want something.
The whole last couple of years has all been for nothing, IMO. All caused by one PM panicked at the growth of UKIP support, followed by both sides of the argument lying and “expanding” the truth to the British public, winding people up with warnings about what might happen, if… And another PM who was a Remainer and has tried without success to get her own governing party to agree. I fear for my grandchildren.
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.July 7, 2018 at 7:45 pm #22784Participantjohnbarry@johnbarryForumite Points: 4,402
It all reminds me of Ariston
JohnJuly 7, 2018 at 7:55 pm #22785ParticipantBob Williams@bullstuff2Forumite Points: 12,986
– and on, and on, and what next?
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.July 7, 2018 at 8:53 pm #22787ParticipantPlaneMan@planemanForumite Points: 6,663
Chaos, dumb arses in power and stupid fecks ‘running’ the country. So nothing new.July 7, 2018 at 10:11 pm #22791Participantjohnbarry@johnbarryForumite Points: 4,402
?? and what next?
and on and Ariston
JohnJuly 7, 2018 at 11:24 pm #22793ParticipantThe Duke@sgb101Forumite Points: 11,208
Save in 16 I was going away not long after the vote, so I changed 2k two days before the vote for 1. 32 iirc. Told my in laws, who wanted to leave, and wouldn’t have a dip would follow, I told them if a leave vote come in (I never believed it would) the pound would drop. They said no it wouldn’t. (failing to notice at that point I have a degree in economics)
I think they got 1.11 when they eventually got round to swapping money.
Last week I changed some cash, at 1.19. Which was about the same as last year. But to compound issues, is the Spanish, and to a further extent French diesel has rocked. In France from around €1 to about €1.38 (supermarket price) spin €1 to €1.20.
Between the exchange rate and the fuel prices, my hol will cost about £200 than it would of the day before the vote. Just on fuel.
I’d recommend if you need euros next summer, get them before the leave date. One of two things will happen, the price will stay the same, or two, it will drop. Either way you won’t lose out. Funny as that’s the same simple advice I gave the in laws.
Like I said above, I’ll start taking notes again when I hear the EUs closing deals, as ours mean next to nothing. (see the katy perry example above).July 8, 2018 at 1:18 am #22799ParticipantTippon@tipponForumite Points: 3,769
VFM: You might have a shock if you think Corbyn will get in. I follow a lot of left leaning commentators on social media, the type of people who, until this year, were following Corbyn almost religiously. Now that the fact that he wants Brexit is getting more well known, there seem to be a lot of people distancing themselves from him. Complaints of no real opposition to the Tories are popping up more and more, so I think if he does get in, it’s going to be a close call.
At this point I think that if a relatively centrist party popped up and said we’ll postpone Brexit but do it properly, there’d be the usual wailing from the hard right ‘Brexit means Brexit or we’ll have a civil war’ numpties, but most people would say sod it, get them in and get it sorted one way or the other.
I would like to see Corbyn get in though. If half of what he says is true, he’ll either make us or break us, and right now that’s better odds than anyone else is giving us ?July 8, 2018 at 8:50 am #22809
Well, Tippon, if you want JC in the first Post Chequers poll is in. Its an instant trend reversal and from what I’ve heard the ones following are even more dramatic. May is utterly stupid. She only hung on last time because she grabbed Lab votes by promising Brexit means Brexit. Now she losses those and a huge chunk of her core vote which was also overwhelmingly Pro-Brexit. She’ll get hammered harder than Major did in ’97 if the Tories are too stupid to chance course and Leader.
Personally I’d rather that JC did not get in but I’m just as fearful of having a PM who doesn’t have an clue about her electorates desires. I’d have happily accepted a balanced compromise but this plan is not that. My gut instinct was that it was part drafted by EU. The reason I say this is that it includes a phrase only used by the RU, ‘there will be consequences’. Not sure any journo has picked up on this. But language often provides big clues to the identity of a text’s author(s).
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.July 8, 2018 at 9:02 am #22810ParticipantStevieP@steviepForumite Points: 150
Corbyn has never been a supporter of the European project. In
1975 – Jezza voted for Britain to leave the EEC in the referendum
1993 – Opposed creation of EU – Maastricht Treaty
2008 – Voted against Lisbon Treaty
2011 – Voted for a referendum on Britain’s EU membership
These are the main points, he has also opposed the creation of the EU’s diplomatic service, stability mechanism and UK participation in the EU banking authority.
Since becoming leader there have been numerous examples of his “less than warm” attitude to the EU.
His side kick, McDonnell, has also voted along very similar lines.
Quote from his friend of forty years Tariq Ali, he (Jezza) is “completely opposed to the EU” and would be campaigning for a vote to leave if he were not leader. His brother Piers has also said that his brother is opposed to the EU but decided to campaign for in as a “party management” issue. (Did he actually campaign at all?).
Do leopards change the spots they have had for all their political life?
Such a pity, because although I don’t agree with much of what he says, he has at least, unlike many politicians, stayed true to his socialist principles up to now. The problem he has is that a lot of what he wants to do on a political level if he gets to be PM is highly likely to be incompatible in some way with the EU rules and a lot of the newer labour supporters are very much remain. Catch 22July 8, 2018 at 9:17 am #22811
I agree 100% but once in No 10 the dynamic changes. At such point he will have far greater authority and be able to impose his (and John D’s) will somewhat more forcefully. Many Tories Brexiteer voters now see him as their only hope of a true Brexit. I’m not sure I can argue against that.
We really do live in interesting times when a substantial number of traditional Tory voters now see the Labour leader as most likely to deliver what they want.
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.July 8, 2018 at 9:37 am #22814ParticipantJayCeeDee@jayceedeeForumite Points: 4,759
I agree 100% but once in No 10 the dynamic changes. At such point he will have far greater authority and be able to impose his (and John D’s) will somewhat more forcefully. Many Tories Brexiteer voters now see him as their only hope of a true Brexit. I’m not sure I can argue against that. We really do live in interesting times when a substantial number of traditional Tory voters now see the Labour leader as most likely to deliver what they want.
Hey you – don’t count me in with that lot!!! ??
I may well be a lifelong Labour supporter, but I won’t vote Labour so long as he fronts them. I know a good few people that feel the same way. With him leading them I just see Labour as un-electable☹ ( but with him as leader, I wouldn’t want them to win)!!
I think Dave has it summed up – so long as the vocal extremes of both main parties are at the forefront/headlines of any negotiations, be that Brexit or just plain governing the country, nothing suitable or appropriate will be achieved. The problem is that tough times bring about extreme circumstances, so the middle ground/centrist thinking gets overshadowed by knee jerk reactions.
In the light of my political leanings it will probably seem strange that I held out most hope for the UK ( at that time ) when the LibDems had a hand in “adjusting” what the Tories did – didn’t that just turn to cr*p??!!July 8, 2018 at 9:39 am #22815ParticipantStevieP@steviepForumite Points: 150
Sad but true. If and I say if, the reports of grass roots tory disillusion are true then a lot of tory’s are going to find themselves homeless. Farage on the way back??? he! he! Watch this spaceJuly 8, 2018 at 9:43 am #22817ParticipantDave Rice@ricedgForumite Points: 8,327
Corbyn / McD want to pursue their vision without anyone sticking their noses in. Easier to do out of the EU.
Just listening to Gove weasel his way around the questions. He knows the EU will reject the proposals then he can pile in again with his own stance.July 8, 2018 at 9:47 am #22818
Not that economic reality counts for anything, a ‘hard’ Brexit will (according to Business Leaders) damage Labour strongholds rather than Conservative ones.
That said I really don’t see that May had any choice – the reality of Northern Ireland and a fair chance the DUP could cause a snap election means that everything has to give way to an ‘open’ border between Ireland and Ulster with all that entails.
 btw any hope of using a ‘High Tech’ solution for the Eire border is just smoking pot. The Government’s own Digital Services putsch has been sabotaged by Civil Service in-fighting and now lies in ruins. linkJuly 8, 2018 at 11:40 am #22825
Corbyn / McD want to pursue their vision without anyone sticking their noses in. Easier to do out of the EU. Just listening to Gove weasel his way around the questions. He knows the EU will reject the proposals then he can pile in again with his own stance.
I agree 100% that that was probably Gove’s plan but alas he who polishes the tu*d gets covered in tu*d and smells of tu*d. The thoughts I am seeing expressed around the ‘net are that he’s blown any chance of ever becoming leader. After all, no sane Tory would desire to oust May only to replace her with someone who was plainly her tu*d polisher. That would play even worse with most party members and Tory supporters.
_______________________________________________________________________________________July 8, 2018 at 11:59 am #22826
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.