Brexit now = CETA +/-?

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This topic contains 1,288 replies, has 20 voices, and was last updated by The VFM Addict 22 hours, 41 minutes ago.

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  • #22765

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps

    I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.

    The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).

    It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.

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  • #22927

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    With hindsight perhaps what May should have done when taking office was to say, “OK you want Brexit that’s decided but what type of Brexit do you want? I will research all practical options and then present them to you (i.e. by referendum) to pick.”

    That is basically what they have been doing for the last couple of years. Remainers have asked from the outset what does Brexit mean – and the silence was deafening.

    May has now finally set out her interpretation of what it means, and I think that the neutered Brexit Bulldog has hinted in his speeches that this was his intended final offer to the EU. He was miffed as he does not think it a good idea to negotiate with cards on the table. However all the noise and furore has probably given May the ability of telling the EU that the alternative could be a complete Brexit shambles.

    I am glad that Bojo has thrown in his cards. The last two years have demonstrated that he is too immature to hold high office in any Government or even  business for that matter. We are better off as a country without him.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by Ed P.
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    #22936

    wasbit
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    @wasbit
    Forumite Points: 485

      I should also add that as the UK is the first country to ever leave the EU, then all sides are breaking new grounds at this time – if anyone else goes then I’m fairly certain there will be some ‘previous experience of such matters’ to refer to. And just to cap it all – bl**dy football and tennis on the TV!!!!!!! Rant over!!

    Sorry to be pedantic, “Is Britain the first country to leave the EU?
    — As a full part of France, Algeria was effectively a member of the Common Market between 1957 and 1962. That ceased upon independence in 1962.
    — Greenland joined as part of Denmark in 1973. After winning home rule it held a referendum on membership in 1982, and 53 per cent voted to leave.
    — The Caribbean island of Saint Barthélemy became a member of the EU as part of Guadeloupe, an overseas department of France. This ceased when Guadeloupe seceded.”

    I didn’t know about Greenland until I heard it on ‘The Chase’ earlier tonight.

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    wasbit

    Rig 1: Zalman Media Centre Rebuild (i3-540)
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    #22942

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,814

    Factually correct, but we’re the first ‘big’ one. Greenland took years. I was wrong about not hearing brexit here. News feeds on the trams had all about the resignations.

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    #22945

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    As I’m feeling pedantic and nit-picky, actually Wasbit is wrong as the EU did not exist prior to 1st November 1993 after the Maastrict treaty came into being It had separate lives before that as the EEC (post 1957) and I think it was called the ECSC before that.

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    #22948

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 491

    Absolutely correct Ed.   No country was a member of the EU until Maastrict because it didn’t exist until then.   We only became a member at that time when John Major committed us to that political union (without asking us) by bullying his own party.    In reality that is the cause of all that’s happening now.   Had he let the people decide in 1993 then no matter which way such a referendum had gone, be it in or out, it would have been the will of the people and we wouldn’t be where we are today.

    _______________________________________________________________________________________

    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #22952

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,216

    I was slightly disappointed to hear that Boris had resigned, because I thought he could do a better job of fighting for a proper Brexit from the inside. Then I remembered one of my reasons for voting to get out of the EU.

    Although Boris was on the inside he no longer had a voice because of the weekend Cheqers agreement. The same as the UK in the EU since they introduced majority voting.

    Better to be on the outside shooting in.

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    #22953

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 491

    I’ve never found Gary Lineker funny before but this tweet cracked me up so I had to share it here:

    Gary Lineker‏@GaryLineker
    Boris Johnson is the latest to hand in a transfer request as his team hurtle towards inevitable relegation.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #22973

    D-Dan
    Participant
    @d-dan
    Forumite Points: 1,028

    We only became a member at that time when John Major committed us to that political union (without asking us) by bullying his own party. In reality that is the cause of all that’s happening now.

    And this is a part of (though fairly low on the list) of the reasons I voted out. The people were never given the opportunity to vote in.

    Having said that, the current Government are constantly trying to second guess why people voted out, without bothering to ask our motives. I think TM and her (ever changing) cabinet may go down in history as one of the most inept Governments this country has ever had. 2 years since the referendum, and only now (with just a few months to go) do they see fit to actually start negotiating in earnest, and then come up with a plan that literally no-one wants.

    Add to that, the resignations, £1Bn (from a suddenly found “magic money tree” paid to a minority, unrepresentative party) to prop up her government, whilst her own people will probably outvote the propup.

    If the referendum were held again tomorrow, I’d still vote “out” (The EU’s behaviour during the travesty of the past couple of years has cemented that view), but I’d want the option to choose the negotiators at the same time. Perhaps put people who have a clue in place, instead of an unelected (by anyone) PM and her team of imbeciles.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by D-Dan.
    • This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by D-Dan.

    Ryzen 7 1800X, 16 GB, 6 (yes - 6) HDs inc 2 SSDs, 4 RPis - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, NV GTX 1060 6GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

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    #22980

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    Interesting Dan, but how would you fix the Irish/Ulster conundrum without plunging the two into a blood-bath?

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    #22981

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,814

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>She can’t come down on one side or the other as both are able to hold her to ransom. The snap election was meant to sort that out. Continual misreading of the situation by successive Tory leaders. These are supposed to be the safe hands responsible party. Pah!</p>

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    #22985

    Spedley
    Participant
    @spedley
    Forumite Points: 286

    I’m still hopefull that Brexit will fizzle out and Corbyn will become PM.

    I don’t believe Corbyn wants to leave the EU.  I haven’t once seen him lie – avoid the question maybe but not lie – and he said he was 75% Remain, 25% Leave.  He has no choice but to do ‘what the public want’ at the moment, if he did he would lose the Labour Leavers but he wouldn’t gain any Tory Remainers.  May would have a had a decent majority at the last election and Brexit would be heading to a triumphant No Deal by now.
    If Brexit fails the Torys stand no chance of winning any election and while Corbyn has gone along with the majority he has fought hard to keep our options open.  He is the reason we have some kind of vote on it.  He is the reason a second referendum hasn’t been rules out.  Corbyn can mop up at the next election but every major Tory will have Brexit failure behind them.
    However, I do believe that Corbyn could have achieved Brexit and probably would have done had he won the last election.

    When Corbyn is PM, regardless of if he is a good one or not, he will get rid of a lot of corruption and greed in the system hopefully get the chance to show the public what real politics can be like.

    i7 4790s / 8GB / 480GB SSD / GTX 980 / 34" UltraWide : i3 4170 / 8GB / 480GB SSD / GTX 770 / 24" Samsung : i3 4130 / 8GB / 500GB Spinner / GTX 1050 / 23" Acer : Q9550 / 8GB / 1TB Spinner / GTX 580 / 22" Acer : i7 720QM / 8GB / 1TB+2TB+500GB Spinners (server) : i5 4570 / 8GB / 60GB SSD / 1TB / GeForce 210 / 22" Dell It's getting warm in here!

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    #22986

    Bob Williams
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    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,593

    When Corbyn is PM, regardless of if he is a good one or not, he will get rid of a lot of corruption and greed in the system hopefully get the chance to show the public what real politics can be like. ”

    I traveled that Yellow Brick Road for decades, the Wizard was always corrupted by the system. There are just too many Cowardly Lions, Tin Men and Scarecrows. I would love to be proved wrong, because if there is one thing this country needs, it is a different, but honest way of government.

    The current Brexit mess is simple to understand if you bring it down to basics.

    We had a PM who was terrified of his party being replaced by UKIP, a single-issue political organisation which became his personal nightmare. So the frightened PM decide to have a referendum based on another single issue, without giving the country time and space to properly prepare the political ground, and without explaining the ramifications to the voting public. After the populace were sufficiently confused by the lies and half-truths of the two sides of the debate, attitudes on both sides hardened and all intelligent consideration was lost. After the democratic vote ended in a decision which appears to have merely intensified argument, division and dissension amongst the British people, the scaredy-cat PM resigned, because the result was not what he wanted and he knew he would be blamed for it.

    We then had another (unelected by the people) PM, who had been a big champion of the  Remain movement and has tried hard to make it appear that she is serving both sides of the issue. Unfortunately she is weak and it appears to the Leave voters, that she is trying to remain in Europe via the back door, whilst Remainers believe she has betrayed them because she was once “onside” but refuses to acknowledge the undemocratic point that the vote was close and should be retaken.

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #22995

    D-Dan
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    @d-dan
    Forumite Points: 1,028

    Interesting Dan, but how would you fix the Irish/Ulster conundrum without plunging the two into a blood-bath?

    I wouldn’t be staunchly blocking re-unification of Ireland.

    Ryzen 7 1800X, 16 GB, 6 (yes - 6) HDs inc 2 SSDs, 4 RPis - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, NV GTX 1060 6GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

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    #22996

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    Interesting Dan, but how would you fix the Irish/Ulster conundrum without plunging the two into a blood-bath?

    I wouldn’t be staunchly blocking re-unification of Ireland.

    That would also lead to a bloodbath, but instead of the IRA it would be the  UVF doing the shooting and bombing. The Ireland/Ulster border is not governed by logic, instead religious differences, emotion and history rule the day. The Good Friday Agreement is not perfect but gives everyone a working compromise that  will allow time to eventually make these differences a matter of history. Now is too early to get rid of it. Btw the Good Friday Agreement is why no politician talk of removing the Human (mis)Rights Act from our laws and why an outside power will continue to have the last word on any interpretation of our laws.

    It is also politically impractical for this Government to do such a deal as the DUP would pull the plug.

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    #22998

    Spedley
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    @spedley
    Forumite Points: 286

    I don’t think the referendum was about the Torys.  I think Murdoch did a deal with Cameron saying his paper would back him in exchange for a referendum.  The same with May, I think Murdoch killed off the other contenders because May is in his pocket.

    i7 4790s / 8GB / 480GB SSD / GTX 980 / 34" UltraWide : i3 4170 / 8GB / 480GB SSD / GTX 770 / 24" Samsung : i3 4130 / 8GB / 500GB Spinner / GTX 1050 / 23" Acer : Q9550 / 8GB / 1TB Spinner / GTX 580 / 22" Acer : i7 720QM / 8GB / 1TB+2TB+500GB Spinners (server) : i5 4570 / 8GB / 60GB SSD / 1TB / GeForce 210 / 22" Dell It's getting warm in here!

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    #23004

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,216

    The Irish border question is only really a problem when it comes to negotiating with the EU.

    At the moment we have no customs boarder with Ireland and special status for Irish immigration.

    If we crash out of the EU with no deal then I see no reason for things to change in the short term. Far better to keep an eye on things to see how they go before introducing laws that may never be needed.

    If the Irish or their EU masters insist on setting up a hard border then let them but as an independent nation we can introduce any restrictions that prove necessary later.

     

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    #23014

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    I agree Wheels, but those who wish to curtail EU migration may get worried when they realise that Ireland will not discriminate another EU citizen whatever their origin as that is illegal under EU law. In other words an open Irish border is just that – its OPEN!

    I’ll put aside problems such as smuggling if we do not adhere to the Customs Union as you can figure out what it would mean if one side has subsidised farming and the other doesn’t.

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    #23020

    D-Dan
    Participant
    @d-dan
    Forumite Points: 1,028

    This is the ONLY problem with the Irish border argument. The fact that the EU see two states, rather than a single landmass (which is ironic, since they can handle the single landmass elsewhere).

    I see no problem at all with the Irish (whether they be RoI or NI) being able to come and go as they please, and a simple passport system would achieve that (even electronic, these days). Since the Good Friday Agreement was reached, the people of Ireland have not just found a way to live harmoniously between north and south, but have built friendships and relationships between both.

    Where borders existed, there are none. Instead, there are people living as one.

    I don’t accept that people on either side of the border will suddenly revert to 1970’s hostility given the choice.

    I also don’t see the issue with a customs border in the Irish sea. It will be an inconvenience, but that’s all.

    And, really, the DUP £1Bn bought votes matter not a drop at the moment. The Tory rebels will see that off in a single hand show.

    EDIT: At the moment, the DUP are the most hostile of the Irish parties, being the ones looking to block any deal from within.

     

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by D-Dan.

    Ryzen 7 1800X, 16 GB, 6 (yes - 6) HDs inc 2 SSDs, 4 RPis - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, NV GTX 1060 6GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.

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    #23026

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,216

    Well like I said, suck it and see.

    IF Ireland suddenly turned into the people and goods smuggling capital of europe then we would have to legislate but I can’t really see it happening.

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    #23033

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    A month or so ago the Scottish newspapers were full of accounts (unverified) that Cork is already being used as a transit point for EU based economic migrants. Apparently it is an easier route than coming through Calais-Dover etc.

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