Brexit now = CETA +/-?

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This topic contains 746 replies, has 20 voices, and was last updated by D-Dan 2 hours, 39 minutes ago.

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  • #22765

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps

    I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.

    The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).

    It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.

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  • #28860

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 886

    Has anyone considered that if we just leave with no deal and it proves to be a mistake after say 5 years (You have to give it a decent go) then its not the end of the world.  The EU would ALWAYS welcome us back under the standard EU terms and the Remainers would get to say we told you so. Point settled.

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    #28861

    Wheels-Of-Fire
    Participant
    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 886

    On the other hand if it goes as well as I expect it to then the debate will just melt away. Point settled again.

    If we never leave we will never know and this divide will rumble on for decades, maybe more.

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    #28862

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,285

    No deal totally screws the average person for five years. On average it takes five years to cut a trade deal and it is naive to think that we can just pick up the EU’s deals. GATT means that nearly everything including food gets an average 5% tariff. Until you have a trade deal GATT does not allow you to pick and choose, and we have ZERO trade deals at the moment!.

    The administrative queues at each port/airport would bring the country to a shuddering halt – why else are most companies stockpiling as much as they can? Many old pharts will die as they will be unable to get their meds.

    The car industry would be dead in a very short time, and unemployment rife.

    Not FUD just check around and refute it if you can!

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    #28863

    Alan Wood
    Participant
    @alanrwood
    Forumite Points: 412

    Yes we probably could rejoin but without the financial agreements/rebates etc that Maggie negotiated back in the late 80s.

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    #28864

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 1,853

    Has anyone considered that if we just leave with no deal and it proves to be a mistake after say 5 years (You have to give it a decent go) then its not the end of the world. The EU would ALWAYS welcome us back under the standard EU terms and the Remainers would get to say we told you so. Point settled.

     

    I think we all have thought that, and know that going out and trying to return means we reenter in a far less favourable position.

    We can revoke A50 and carry on in our current capacity, (which we had to  beg For in the first place,  as we are idiots), or leave.

    No sane person would think we would get to waddle back in to the club in x years and be allowed to resume.as before

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    #28865

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 886

    The EU were going to scrap our rebate anyway to bring us closer into line with the STANDARD terms of membership. In 5 or 10 years time there is unlikely to be ANY country on special terms.

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    #28866

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,285

    The EU were going to scrap our rebate anyway to bring us closer into line with the STANDARD terms of membership. In 5 or 10 years time there is unlikely to be ANY country on special terms.

    You were reading the wrong newspapers, read the Guardian for that period and you get a different slant from the Daily Wail etc..

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    #28867

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 176

    Let’s get real.   If we Remain and given the known general direction of the EU, Federalisation; then patently the EU can never let our ‘special terms’, a veto, no closer political union, big rebate, etc., stand for very long.  It’s the same argument as currently.  We cannot be seen to be getting better than the rest.    This was one of the things I meant when saying no-one can be sure what Remain actually means.   How long will our ‘special terms’ last?

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #28868

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 176

    Except all we get from the Brexiteers is wishful thinking. If you truly support Brexit then please explain just how and why the UK will be able to cut better trade deals than a bloc that currently has a larger GDP than the US. As a simple example, we already know the trade deal the EU has with Japan, how will we better that?

    I wanted to reply specifically to this earlier post.    It is not a case of getting a better deal although often that would be possible.  Rather its getting more deals, more quickly.

    The problem with the EU is that each member state has its own interests.  For example, France would veto any trade deal on agricultural produce to protect its advantage in the EU.     Therefore, we are far more flexible and can be faster of foot because we are not trying to balance 27 often conflicting interests.   Its the advantage smaller ‘organisations’ always have.   Also we would do trade deals with countries that the EU might not be bothered to.    Honestly, who thinks it would have taken us, had we been out of the EU, 8 years to reach a trade deal with Canada?    It is the need to get 27 different heads, most with different needs and desires, all nodding at the same time that causes the EU to take so long to get trade deals.

    And, there you go.  That’s also why we would be certain to  be trapped in May’s backstop for many decades.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #28875

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,454

    Well if it is all up in the air whatever direction then I’d rather the FUD we know and not the great unknown.

    OK so in theory we could be nimbler than the EU at trade deals, but how many trade deals did Canada make in the 7 years it took to get the EU one? Answer, to the same scope, none. So unless you want a deal on the same scale as Jordan, Panama, Honduras, Korea and the Ukraine it will take a long time. BTW they took 4 years+

    Sounds great in theory but in the real world? It’s all hopelessly optimistic and any potential downsides are never admitted never mind discussed. Let’s face it, according to the Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade the easiest deal was going to be with the EU wasn’t it?

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    #28884

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 1,853

    It seems Mrs May is having a terrible day in the office today.

    But I think for trh first time I’m my life time parliament is actually doing what it’s there for. To sand up and keep the government in check.

    Real democracy in action, its not often I have much decent to say of our ruling class, but today they are actually doing what they should.

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    #28886

    Bob Williams
    Participant
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,152

    What amuses (perplexes?) me is the number of people who bring up former Colonies and Dominions as being prepared to offer us good Trade Deals, simply because we are “The Mother Country.” These are now independent nations in their own right and they will consider any deal on their own terms, based upon its effect upon their own economies and GDP. Irrespective of any feelings they may have for the MC, they will look after themselves first. Which is exactly how it should be.

    Many of them will look upon our deals with a jaundiced eye, considering the damage our ancestors caused in conquering their countries, and the way we prospered from their misery and their (often forced) labour. The way we sold their ancestors into slavery, how we redrew maps to create borders which threw together peoples who were decidedly antagonistic towards each other.

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #28887

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 176

    If we get caught in the backstop such gives third countries who have trade deals with the EU tariff-free access to the UK market, but the UK does not enjoy reciprocal rights of access to those third country markets.   In other words, the UK domestic market becomes the EU’s to bestow at its pleasure, with tariffs set by the EU to suit the EU27.

    The extent to which May (aided by Robbins) has been acting treacherously is only now becoming totally clear.   Oh and Dave, what do you call the above if that is not vassalage?    Our internal market becomes theirs to sell as they see fit.

    Perhaps we should stay in the EU on our current terms and use our veto 100% of the time to freeze the EU totally and then see what they’ll pay us to leave and to be rid of us.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #28890

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 1,853

    Add all our old colonies together Bob and they make up about 5% of world trade (or some small figure), and I may be no expert. But doent we (the uk) manacfure high end highest engenieered products. Airplanes, moteror, cars and sports cars etc.. And arnt all our old colonies rather poor?

    So how namy of these poor nations, are built high end high engineered items? Not many people will be buying Nissan cars that coat 10x there yearly wage, nether mind the rangrovers, mclarens or airplanes.

    Thr nations by them are other with in Europe, or a nation that already has a deal with us via EU. We ain’t making better deals with them.

    It like the old saying, so you 100% of a small pie, or 10% of a huge one. As the only nation that will want to make a deal with us are the poor nations that want to sell us grain and staples, they won’t be buying our high end merch. So the Pound will leaving our shares and not coming back.

     

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    #28892

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,454

    The word vassalage is deliberately inflammatory and patently untrue. But hold on! This is where the European Army comes in! http://www.thefinertimes.com/Middle-Ages/vassals-in-the-middle-ages.html

    Another important duty of a vassal was to attend to his feudal lord during court. He was also responsible for recruiting more men for his lord’s army, protecting and managing his lord’s manor, supervising all of the serfs and peasants who lived on the manor, and acting as a mercenary for his lord.

    Honestly it doesn’t help using such language, I think everyone has seen through it by now.

    But how can we end up in a backstop when the easiest trade deal ever is there for the taking?

    I still haven’t seen any plan for the Irish border apart from calling the EU out over a game of chicken. “Go on, we dare you!” With negotiations skills like that international trade deals should be a piece of the proverbial.

    Sorry, I forgot. Bojo wants to build a 25 mile long bridge. Didn’t he want to do that to Calais too at one stage? and spent £37 million planning a garden bridge across the Thames. Seems he likes building bridges everywhere he shouldn’t and not where he should.

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    #28898

    D-Dan
    Participant
    @d-dan
    Forumite Points: 760

    I voted leave, and my reasons have not gone away. In fact, if anything, the reasons I voted leave (and they are not the reasons Government seems to think that they can divine) have increased having watched, closely, the events of the last two years.

    However, if anything has been proven, it’s that whoever drafted Article 50 had no clue what they were doing and never expected or hoped it would be used.

    The fact of the matter is, having never been asked if we wanted to join the EU, the legal position is so tied up with bad draftsmanship and bad intentions that, I believe, no country will ever be allowed to leave.

    And so to my reasons, I don’t like dictatorships. It seems TM is also a dictator, simply refusing to accept what anyone tells her that doesn’t support her own vision, no matter how sensible the argument against her, and how bad her response (“I don’t agree with the UN report, so we’ll continue to cripple the poor, the disabled” being typical of her type of response).

    Now, despite my own, strongly held views, in a second referendum now, I’m not sure I’d vote leave again, but rather vote remain until the damned legislation can be made more robust and fair.

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    #28912

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 176

    I voted leave, and my reasons have not gone away. In fact, if anything, the reasons I voted leave (and they are not the reasons Government seems to think that they can divine) have increased having watched, closely, the events of the last two years. However, if anything has been proven, it’s that whoever drafted Article 50 had no clue what they were doing and never expected or hoped it would be used. The fact of the matter is, having never been asked if we wanted to join the EU, the legal position is so tied up with bad draftsmanship and bad intentions that, I believe, no country will ever be allowed to leave. And so to my reasons, I don’t like dictatorships. It seems TM is also a dictator, simply refusing to accept what anyone tells her that doesn’t support her own vision, no matter how sensible the argument against her, and how bad her response (“I don’t agree with the UN report, so we’ll continue to cripple the poor, the disabled” being typical of her type of response). Now, despite my own, strongly held views, in a second referendum now, I’m not sure I’d vote leave again, but rather vote remain until the damned legislation can be made more robust and fair.

    What legislation are you referring to?

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #28914

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,285

    I wanted to reply specifically to this earlier post. It is not a case of getting a better deal although often that would be possible. Rather its getting more deals, more quickly. The problem with the EU is that each member state has its own interests.

    I’ll respond to the specific points you raise in reverse order:

    a) The problem with the EU is that each member state has its own interests.

    This is precisely why the EU negotiations are carried out by the EU Commissioners. The member states have a right of veto on the whole package. It is then up to them whether on balance their interests are best served by a ‘grin and bear it’ on bits they do not like. My experience is that a good deal is one where both sides have to grin and bear it.

    b) I fail to see how we will be able to negotiate more quickly,

    Oliver Letwing let the cat out of the bag by saying that the UK has NO trade negotiators, all would have to be poached from the EU. Poaching large numbers (150+) people is rarely a good strategy for getting the best and brightest. I’ll grant that in an optimum situation we would be able to put together a ‘wants list’ and ‘an ‘out of the question ‘ list faster than 27 EU states, but actual negotiations would be just as slow.

    • This reply was modified 6 days, 11 hours ago by Ed P.
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    #28918

    Wheels-Of-Fire
    Participant
    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 886

    A very well made point D-Dan, untill you got to the last bit 😁

    We must escape before we negotiate. Why bother talking to your jailers ?

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    #28919

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 1,853

    Rather nice “jail”. I like to go to the mainland at least twice a year, to visit our “jailers”. I particularly like our French guards.

     

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