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I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.
The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).
It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.
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Speaking from very brief personal experience, I found a German jail, even in the 70’s, to be very comfortable. Much more so than my bunk in the Kaserne that Adolf opened in 1933, as one of the first barracks to be created after his (perfectly fair) election.
I am off topic again. Deep joy.??
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.You must know what a guilded cage is all about ? I for  one won’t be stuffed into one
Blah blah what the EUÂ wants. Convince me that im not just paying for lazy french farmers.
I am glad we have a bit of debate around here though. Perhaps we can declair FORUMTE reason central?
What legislation are you referring to?
Apologies. From within, and especially after the whole fiasco, we can ask for article 50 to be looked at again, and more to the point, made fit for purpose.
Here’s the rub, if the EU refuse, then we simply walk away with no negotiation at all, and if they agree, then clearly we open the doors for any one else. Neither will ever be given a fair hearing. A badly drafted law that prevents anyone ever amending it.
Arch Linux, on a Ryzen 7 1800X, 32 GB, 5 (yes -5) HDs inc 5 SSDs, 4 RPi 3Bs + 1 RPi 4B - one as an NFS server with two more drives, PiHole (shut yours), Plex server, cloud server, and other random Pi stuff. Nice CoolerMaster case, 2 x NV GTX 1070 8GB, and a whopping 32" AOC 1440P monitor.
Steve, you cannot class Oz, NZ and Canada as “poor countries”. Many of the other, let us say, ‘culturally different’ former colonies, do have great wealth. It’s just held by a very small percentage of the population.
An even smaller percentage than the UK, which is really saying something.
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.We can ask D-Dan. We can ask ?. We tell.
This is the way things are. We have the money. They dont. We dont just GIVE it to them !
But we can’t make a better deal with Canada as they have a deal with the EU, so any deal made will be worse than thd one we have.
NZ will likely only have lamb to flog us, but America will want to undercut them with substandard meats,, and NZ don’t want euro cars, they like American and Japanese cars. Same as aus. And I’m sure anything else we have on sale, they cn get for cheaper from Asian, which is on their door step.
The point was, we have a free trade deal with one third of third of World biggest market, and have good deals in place with the other major trading states via the OUR EU deals.
They also mention that we could leave and use our current trading deals until we get round to negotiation new ones, this just isn’t possible , plus even if it was, the current trading deals work why we are in trh EU but make no sense if we are out, as the deals in place protect certain goods of other nations, as well as our own, so we be say, trading with Brazil for example, but still be using terms that protect forign oranges, truffles, tomatoes, etc.. The deal we have in place via EU rules, don’t work for the UK when is a single state. They actually would work against us in a big way.
There is many things wrong with the set up. Also another big concern of mine is drugs, Especally one’s with time sensitive life spans. The medical accociation or some major body recommended we should be stock piling 6 months worth of drugs, the gov can’t afford that so it’s decided on 6 weeks buffer of drugs, insulin and the like, so that’s an issue!
But what about drugs with short life spans that can’t be frozen? Like many things asosianted with cancer treatments.
Some of trlhe isotopes used come in on a daily basis, somthing I didn’t know till latety. These can’t be stored, and if there is hold ups of days never mind weeks or months, people will die needlessly. For this single issue alone, brexit should be stopped untill customs and the import/export hazardous and medical material, never mind foods, has been sorted out.
As it stands the items we need desperately will be the items that will spend longest in lorry yerds going through checks. This is without mentioning non critical just on time manufactoring that won’t be able to plan and operate going forward. Which will go from non critical, to very frigging critical to the people that can’t pay their mortgages as their hours are slasted or worse!
More mortgage failures means more houses on the market, which means drops in house prices, which means when fixed rates come to an end negivtive equity so no remortgage, so more houses on the market, banks coming up short. Interest rates will rise, so more houses on the market so more losses, plus business failures, no investments, so more job losses, inflation etc.. All the good stuff. 2008 crash well be looking back on fondly by this point.
This may be worst case scenario, but it’s very likly to be more towards the worse end of the spectrum than the better. Uncertainty kills economies. And this is the mother of all uncertainty.
Not a single pro argument makes sense. They are all about ‘opinions and beliefs’, instead of facts, figures and forecasts.
Not to mention European immagrats are actually met contributors to the comtry, and not a drain like most brextremists would have you believe.
The people that cost the countries are the under 21s (medical and education) the over 65,(medical and pensions), the average EU immagrant is about 25-45, they come over work (the majority) , pay in to the pot and usally leave. Contrabuting to the yound and old of this nation.
Yes there is some umemployed, but we have rules in place to move them back home, we just don’t enfoce them, as it’s not in the nation interest to do so, the few that are a drain, it would cost 10x of not more to put in a system to police it. So I doubt we will after we leave, given there will be less money on hand.
Oh, good morning. Lol.
39 billion they want from us, just as an opening offer. 39 Billion ! I will say it again just in case anyone missed it .39 Billion !
I suspect Steve had the old African colonies ion mind. I certainly agree with Bob’s point about Australia, NZ and Canada, aud S.E. Asia, there our manufactured goods are likely to get short shrift from local production or imports from US/China.
However, even to dream that there is any low hanging fruit for the UK is typical Brexit nativity in the extreme. All of these countries plus many more are already in the midst of EU trade negotiations.
39 billion they want from us, just as an opening offer. 39 Billion ! I will say it again just in case anyone missed it .39 Billion !
The EU trade block is worth about 7trillion (or some huge amount) they have said withing 24 hours of us leaving if we don’t pay what we OWE, they will file a clase in the haige against the uk.
I can’t see many nations ling up to make deals with us while we ate tied up in court over breaking terms with a giliuth trading block. It doesn’t make us look good or trustworthy does it.
Also you have to remember, to the rest of the world, they are looking on at us as the aggressors and the ones in the wrong here too. They don’t see us as hard done. So negating on payment terms is only goin to worsen our reputation. So that 39bn if we fight over it, will cost us far more in the long run. We should pay it ASAP if we decide to leave
I do not want to give the EU another red cent.
39 thousand thousand so they can tell us what to do ?
For the odd holiday in the sun ? Nah
Duke, the one point you seem to be missing is that the percentage of our exports going to the EU is falling year on year and our imports rising.  Our growth has been in countries outside the EU and usually with states were no EU trade deal even exists yet.  The EU also is set on a plan to hamper our biggest markets – Financial Services – by instituting s new FS tax.  It is untrue to paint the financial future within the EU as utopian.
The big issue is really Federalisation. It cannot be ignored. I do not believe that the majority of the UK are up for the Euro, up for a unified fiscal policy, up for a unified Foreign Policy, up for a Euro Army, etc., etc.   I’m absolutely certain that Corbyn would not be no matter what he says.   The supposed ‘fantastic deal’ we have as a member (i.e. a veto, exception from the obligation to closer political union, a big rebate, etc.) must and will be eroded by the EU given its ultimate goal.   Remain therefore is NOT a vote for ‘that fantastic deal’ it is a vote for a deal that is absolutely certain to worsen, is it not?   But of course, Remainers have not the honesty to admit such.  They talk of the current terms of membership ignoring that they will worsen month on month and year on year.
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Nowhere has Duke, or anyone else, said anything about the EU being Utopian. Please stop putting words in other peoples mouths.
I can see that you imagine our deal will worsen, but that’s only in your opinion. Federalisation? I’m all for it.
I see on the news that the rollover of our existing trade deals isn’t as certain as it was assumed it would be. That will be fun.
WoF, we have to pay what we owe. How will it look to potential partners if we demonstrate that we don’t give a fig for our obligations? It’s not payment for a new deal, it’s settling up our part of the finances. The amount may be right or wrong, I have no idea, but the principle is just that. We have to settle up before we leave.
Definitely vote for German-style Federalisation! That may move the UK a little bit towards being a democracy with local opinions counting for more than they do at present.
Anyone familiar with the horrendous limitations placed on Councils —- all responsibility, no power and no money, will know what I mean.
VFM you seem to be certain about a lot. All I know is the current set up is OK, and all the leading economists seem to forecast a mess ahead.
Not that it needed any leading economists to see this. I’ve been banging the drum since pre referendum.
Anyhow, all the polls suggest that if it comeS to another vote, the public is now well aware of the mess and lies told by the bexiters and will vote to remain part of OUR EU.
So we can put all this sillyness behind us.
As for utopia, I said days ago, I’m no real fan of the EU set up, I just prefer it over our politions. Sadly they need oversire. And mainly it keeps us all friends. Given our track record it’s better to be tied to the mainland states than not.
Also to me it seems very arogent to think our tiny nation is better off alone than part of the latest trading block on the planet. No wonder we had to beg to get in, in the first place.
I was out last night talking in the pub, and brexit came up as it does. And the subject of a GE and if one party ran on just staying, would you take it. Most said yes, wether left or right leaning people would all vote for the oppersite party to their beliefs if it would end this.
They would be willing to put personal politics aside, and write off the next four years.
Then it moved to the lib dems. If a GE broke out and they said we will end brexit if you pick us, would we go their, if both Labour and tory was vague on the matter, and the majority said yes. It got us thinking if enotj time had passed since the Clegg era that they would be trusted to come through with a promise.
To come out as a staunch remain, could be their way back to the big league, not just that, it could win them the GE and even a majority. Imagine that.
Lib dems ride in and steal the lot from under the main parties noses, and save the nation. Lol.
I’ve just been watching Nadine Dorries’s masterclass in wild speculation presented as fact and then that fact attacked. All in one rush, don’t let anyone get in and challenge the premise. It’s quite funny when it happens though, I saw a Sky reporter interrupt and pull her up over the use of vassal state when that was sound bite of the week. She had no answer apart from “that’s what people are calling it”.
Also praising Mervyn King, who was actually in charge of the BoE when they failed to see the crash coming, not Mark Carney. But they think he’s on their side now so we can gloss over that bit and mangle history again.
I do not want to give the EU another red cent. 39 thousand thousand so they can tell us what to do ? For the odd holiday in the sun ? Nah
Of all the pointless, irrelevant, inaccurate, insensible posts you have made here, that takes the prize.
Federalisation, in your later post? I am one of a large and growing number of British Republicans who believe that an unelected, over paid, over-privileged Royal Family has outlived its usefulness and should be scrapped to make way for a fairer system, on the German model. Scotland, Wales, NI and England would become part of a Federal nation. Some areas of England would perhaps have to be split into federal states. Rule from London would become less powerful and overbearing and the incredible amounts of money spent upon projects such as Crossrail would be questioned on an economic basis: what does this do for the rest of the country? Federal states would have more freedom to set their own laws and taxes. There would be an elected Upper and Lower House of national government.
Anyone who has examined and perhaps lived under, the FRG system, would agree that it is a much fairer system which does not feature 95% of property and money, being held by less than 1% of the population. The FRG is not perfect, but it is a lot closer to perfection than our own flawed, Establishment-ruled shambles of a democracy.
Our nation is ruled by descendants of those who came over with William I: the Normans are still here.
When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.The ConArtists, sorry Conservatives in this area seem to have given up and are campaigning for a Remain vote in the forthcoming second referendum. Jumping the gun a bit I think!
Their platform if you can call it that is that a second referendum is an affront to democracy, and that people should cast a vote for a Brexit (whatever that means) at the second referendum to ensure their first vote is not wasted.
Nothing about economics or the impacts of a hard Brexit, just pure emotional BS..
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