Brexit now = CETA +/-?

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This topic contains 855 replies, has 20 voices, and was last updated by The VFM Addict 8 hours, 49 minutes ago.

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  • #22765

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps

    I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.

    The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).

    It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.

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  • #29372

    The Duke
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    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 1,977

    Les personal digs please people.

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    #29378

    Bob Williams
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    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,277

    I agree. Don’t we get enough of people having a nasty go at each other in the media and (worse) in the pub?

    It seems my area has become a bit of a football here. Let me explain a bit: The whole of Lincolnshire has a much smaller proportion of Ethnic cultures, than the rest of the UK. East Lyndsey has an even smaller proportion. They are not made unwelcome, but the only ones we get are in the NHS and I for one am deeply grateful for them. Why, there were even two Scots Lassies in my Chemo treatment suite! (Joke, OK?)

    Most of the Primary schools, especially in villages, are C of E. Whatever your opinion of religion, and I am an atheist, the fact is that they give the kids a very good grounding. The problems, if any, begin when they enter Secondary Education. All of my grandkids attended C of E Primaries except one. He was at Mablethorpe Primary, was and remains Dyslexic, and received none of the promised one to one help. His Asperger’s cousin attended a C of E Primary in another village and I have talked about his progress before on here. He had a permanent 1 to 1 tutor/advisor, who had learned about all forms of Autism and helped him so much to survive and prosper in a large Technical College.

    You can travel through East Lyndsey to see England and Lincolnshire flags everywhere. It is an area that contributes greatly towards the almost 70% of British food produced in Lincolnshire. Tourism is growing, but it remains a Farming economy and many farms go way back through generations of owners, with recognisably English names.

    In short, it is an area that is quintessentially English. The people are very proud of this, extremely patriotic and very Tory. When they vote, they are not casting a vote for or against British Exit: they are voting for their England to leave the EU. I think they are wrong, but they are a democratic majority.

    Engxit! Victoria Atkins does not understand this of course. She talks about “My constituents” but has struggled to understand some of us, in public and before the Media Eye. Her much-missed predecessor was a local man, Sir Peter Tapsell knew us well and I was content to vote for him twice. That comes from a lifelong, now disillusioned Socialist.

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #29386

    The Duke
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    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 1,977

    My area is far form quaint englishness, pronaly because its Wales. But being in the North, its neither very Welsh.

    However is quient and what you’d think of as a traditional country village. We lost our single foreigners when the chines was closed down (dirty) and now its a crappy Chinese, but assuming clean.

    It’s a nice place to live. However Rhyl isn’t far, I actully look over the top of Rhyl out my back winwows. That has issues, lots of homeless, crime and immegrants that people like to blame for stuff. So Rhyl is quintessentially a brit town 😋

    Back home in Liverpool (even though I’ve spent more time now out of Liverpool), it has a massive militcultual inhabitance, but its a) the better for it. Its one of thd few city’s that embraces outsiders and can see their worth. Probably why they was a firm stay. They don’t have the ‘foreigners are bad’ indoctrinated into them from birth.

    Liverpool would be a lesser palce if it was all white. Being a port city it’s people like to look outwards rather then inwards. A great place with some of the finest, freindlest people in the uk.

    Though tbf most of the North is very friendsly. Even Manchester, well now that José as pissed off, everyone seems happy (except the scousers).

    One of my favour paces is Newcastle and Leeds, northerners are just nice. Untill you piss them off, then they’ll glass you. But at least thy will give the the chance to begin with.

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    #29452

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,481

    I’m doing something wrong, WordFence keeps barfing when I try to embed a Youtube video.

    Anyway, I just wanted to cheer up this depressing subject by saying that the Dutch still love us!

    link

    • This reply was modified 4 weeks ago by The Duke.
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    #29460

    Bob Williams
    Participant
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,277

    Nice one Ed.

    Back in 2008, we went on a Rhine cruise in reverse, taking a catch to Breisach near Switzerland and returning via Holland. Before we left Holland, we stopped at a “Cheese and Clog factory” where we met this guy, photographed with my Dianne:

    He boarded our coach before we left and gave us two messages: “England, keep the Pound!” and “Perhaps you should not have joined!” We found all the Dutch people we met to be very friendly, but so were the the Germans we met. I recall making a beeline for a hot Bratwurst stall in Wesel Markt and enjoying a Röst Bratwürst mit Zemf ” (German mustard, nice and mild.)

    Made me dig for that pic and reminded me of a lovely holiday. We love River Cruising. We still have two pairs of clogs somewhere, engraved “Bob” and “Dianne”. Never worn them, who needs splinters in their feet?😋

     

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #29462

    Bob Williams
    Participant
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,277

    Nice one Ed. Back in 2008, we went on a Rhine cruise in reverse, taking a coach to Breisach near Switzerland and returning via Holland. Before we left Holland, we stopped at a “Cheese and Clog factory” where we met this guy, photographed with my Dianne: He boarded our coach before we left and gave us two messages: “England, keep the Pound!” and “Perhaps you should not have joined!” We found all the Dutch people we met to be very friendly, but so were the the Germans we met. I recall making a beeline for a hot Bratwurst stall in Wesel Markt and enjoying a Röst Bratwürst mit Zemf ” (German mustard, nice and mild.) Made me dig for that pic and reminded me of a lovely holiday. We love River Cruising. We still have two pairs of clogs somewhere, engraved “Bob” and “Dianne”. Never worn them, who needs splinters in their feet?😋

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #29463

    Bob Williams
    Participant
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,277

    Quoted meself, dunno what happened! Going for a lie down.

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #29789

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 213

    Pound to a penny you won’t see this reported on the BBC.    Pretty much every time someone of genuine significance in speaks in favour of Brexit on WTO rules it never gets reported.  Its obviously a significant matter when someone like this writes to every local Conservative Association.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #29791

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,584

    They’re probably going to concentrate on the loss of jobs at Jaguar, a 10% tariff on their cars and 4.5% on components will really add to their woes. And no the automotive industry doesn’t think the inevitable drop in sterling will actually help them.

    And what the Japanese PM has had to say: “Japanese PM tells May ‘whole world’ wants her to avoid no deal”.

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    #29794

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,481

    There is typically a five+ times multiplier on job losses in the car industry when you factor in impacts on suppliers.

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    #29796

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 1,977

    Not to mention the deals the government have stuck with companies to set up here, instead of mainland, once they can’t take advantage of the open market  which no doubt was in the contracts. They will be suing the government in the hauge.

    That will look good  when we a begging some nationins to strike deals with us. No one will trust us to honour future deals.

    I like the idea of us craclshikg out and it hitt the farmers the hardest. Given for some mental reason they almost all voted to leave. (apparently).

    I still think may is playing chicken, she il will never no deal. If she doesn’t get her crap through, she’ll blink. We’ll she’ll cop out and run, and someone else will come in and end this mess.

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    #29799

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 213

    I too have concern for JLR employees.   However,  JLR were clear that their problem was falling sales in China and Europe plus the fact that they are heavily ‘diesel orientated’ at present and diesel sales are falling everywhere.   Brexit is for them a fear going forward but is not the cause of their current problems and JLR were also clear that they intend to keep investing in the UK, Brexit or not.

    The point I made seems to have been avoided although it seems was totally correct.   A former head of MI6 jointly with a former defence chief, Lord Guthrie, say, “The first duty of the state, above trade, is the security of its citizens.”, which we all know to be true, and that the “The Withdrawal Agreement abrogates this fundamental contract and would place control of aspects of our national security in foreign hands” yet the BBC make no mention of it while running many far less newsworthy items.

    I find it bizarre that not one peep seems interested in national security but focus instead on financial Brexit matters.    But then again perhaps I should not as almost without exception Remainers seem to put the financial aspects of Brexit before all else citing ‘Expert’ predictions.    As a matter of interest how many of you were in favour of joining the Euro roughly a decade ago?    I seem to recall that all of the ‘Experts’ then were predicting similar doom as to what Remainers predict re Brexit if we did not join, not least that inward investment would collapse.   In the event the reverse was true.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #29800

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,009

    Dire financial predictions are all they have left VFM as they cannot be proved one way or the other until we actually leave. All other objections to leaving can either be solved quite quickly after Brexit or are non issues in the first place. One absolute concrete financial certanty though is that if we leave with no deal we will no longer be paying Billions a year to be told what we can and can’t do.

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    #29803

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,481

    I think the dire financial warnings are all about a ‘hard’ Brexit.  Watch the video Steve posted and you will see just why a GATT fallback would ruin this country. If you do not agree with the legal/financial / ramifications of GATT please educate me why the video id inaccurate.

    Even Welsh farmers are now concerned as they realise a 40% tariff on lamb kills their farms.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Ed P.
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    #29806

    Dave Rice
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    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,584

    I was very careful not to say Brexit was to blame for JLR’s woes, my point was that the WTO tariffs would hardly help. Another example of being told we think X when we don’t.

    Some may say Dearlove (head of intelligence at the time of Iraq) is indulging in his own Project Fear. What happens to the EU Arrest Warrant with No Deal?

    The car and Aerospace industry won’t disappear overnight but they will slip away. Common sense tells you that the foreign manufacturers will put new money into the place that does the most good for their business and if we have barriers up it won’t be here. I don’t think you need an Economics degree to work that out.

    We don’t even buy the cars we make, “The UK exports just under 80 per cent of the cars produced here; some 56 per cent of which go to the rest of the EU. Around 86 per cent of vehicles that are sold in the UK are imported; around 70 per cent of these from the rest of the EU”. How is WTO going to do anything other than bugger that up for everyone?

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    #29807

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,009

    The video is again full of if, maybe, could happen, worst case scenarios. None of it can be tested till we leave. I really like the bit about us imposing trade sanctions upon our selves if we start from a WTO rules base though. Apparently we will join the ranks of north Korea and Russia as a rogue state. WTO rules are only the start of proper trade negotiations but even under them we are not going to put in a schedule that slaps a 40% tariff on all imports and exports. That is the MAXIMUM we could apply and still remain within the rules. 40% is for silly buggers who impose it on our exports first.

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    #29808

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,009
    #29810

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,481

    Other than potential EU treaty impacts, the Twitter post only bears relationship to the tariffs WE charge. It does not cover the tariffs that WTO members are OBLIGATED to charge if we do not have a trade agreement with that country. It is this obligation (the 40% tariff on Welsh lamb as an example) which Steve’s link covers. These are NOT FUD numbers they are legal obligations, no ifs or buts. Until (say) we have a trade agreement with the EU this is the tariff the EU MUST levy.

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    #29811

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,584

    People just don’t seem to understand WTO is another rules based organisation, you can’t just do what you want with no implications. If the EU dropped say the 40% lamb tariff it would have to be for all countries and not just the UK. That isn’t going to happen.

    Only a single country (Mauritania) trades under just WTO rules, you create trade agreements as WTO is a bit crap. Is Mauritania the country we wish to emulate? Seriously?

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    #29812

    The Duke
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    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 1,977

    The only If and Buts are; IF we leave the EU, we are obliged to take WTO terms and will be serverly damamaged by them. BUT if cwe stay we won’t.

    Security is a great argument, I’ll give you that. However if we don’t have a stable economy and we won’t have the money to secure bugger all.

    So economy trumps security. As it needed to come first. Income tax was introduce for the very purpose of security. Well to fight the French wars. Like all over taxes it never went away after the war ended. Now it funds the state including securing it.

    Now if we was to leave, we would have to scale back the armed forces anyhow, meaning probably being pushed out of nato, which woundt be that bad as then we could just look after our own borders. And stop messing around in others business. However then without the might of the joint European nations we would be far more exposed to a Russian, American, EU, Indian, chines etc…. Threat. As we are a small fish in a huge ocean.

    So the best security is to stay in the biggest alliance on the planet. Especally with the likes of Russia America China and even Indian strengh.

    Stronger together comes to mind. Actually wasnt that one of the remains slogans? Has a better ring than better alone, that’s for sure.

    I’d actually like to see this EU army that the leavers keep saying is a thing, actually be come a real thing. We would be a far more manoverable deterent, if we had one director, or own streamlined military cabinet in place. And probably save a fortune over all, as I can only assume atm the EU as a whole with have a lot of duplicate and redundant arms of its armies. Under one umbrella it could be reformed in to a much more focused force.

    It won’t happen, but it actually should. Also it would tie it together even stonger. The more I think about the EU as a being the more I thing it needs more integration not less.

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