Brexit now = CETA +/-?

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This topic contains 1,288 replies, has 20 voices, and was last updated by The VFM Addict 22 hours, 14 minutes ago.

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  • #22765

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps

    I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.

    The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).

    It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.

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  • #29813

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    As the average time to negotiate a trade deal seems to be about five years, we just need to tell all Welsh farmers etc that they will only have to tough it out for five years. Easy provided you do not mind a revolution.

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    #29814

    Wheels-Of-Fire
    Participant
    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,216

    Some more about WTO schedules written by the WTO attatched.

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    #29817

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 491

    The only If and Buts are; IF we leave the EU, we are obliged to take WTO terms and will be serverly damamaged by them. BUT if cwe stay we won’t. Security is a great argument, I’ll give you that. However if we don’t have a stable economy and we won’t have the money to secure bugger all. So economy trumps security. As it needed to come first. Income tax was introduce for the very purpose of security. Well to fight the French wars. Like all over taxes it never went away after the war ended. Now it funds the state including securing it. Now if we was to leave, we would have to scale back the armed forces anyhow, meaning probably being pushed out of nato, which woundt be that bad as then we could just look after our own borders. And stop messing around in others business. However then without the might of the joint European nations we would be far more exposed to a Russian, American, EU, Indian, chines etc…. Threat. As we are a small fish in a huge ocean. So the best security is to stay in the biggest alliance on the planet. Especally with the likes of Russia America China and even Indian strengh. Stronger together comes to mind. Actually wasnt that one of the remains slogans? Has a better ring than better alone, that’s for sure. I’d actually like to see this EU army that the leavers keep saying is a thing, actually be come a real thing. We would be a far more manoverable deterent, if we had one director, or own streamlined military cabinet in place. And probably save a fortune over all, as I can only assume atm the EU as a whole with have a lot of duplicate and redundant arms of its armies. Under one umbrella it could be reformed in to a much more focused force. It won’t happen, but it actually should. Also it would tie it together even stonger. The more I think about the EU as a being the more I thing it needs more integration not less.

    I am truly staggered that you don’t think an EU army is going to happen.  Its all the heirarchy of Germany and France plus Juncker have been banging on about.   Because its the final sale of sovereignty given that defence is the first duty of “a state”.    An EU army is very different from an organisation like Nato.   The Defence Minister of Germany, Ursula von der Leyen, has become the latest to come out openly backing a full EU Army.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #29819

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    It is a few years since I filled out an export declaration, but one of the big gotchas used to be the requirement to deposit (overseas) a bond to cover the import tariff when moving between the bonded location and the market. This was typically large enough to impact cash flow requirements. i.e the tariff was paid upfront by the importer!

    The impact of tariffs on a business should not be lightly dismissed.

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    #29828

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 2,231

    Ues Ed some countries want a deposit that is the equvianlt of the whole cost of shipment.  Which for small companies is a massive issue. As DHL etc isn’t going to cover thst for you. Thought that’s extreme cases.

    VHM given the poor showing of our on government over the last couple of years. And the new intervrsty imitives documents that are coming out, I don’t know why you wouldn’t want oversight of out rulers.

    Once Our of the EU, and have no oversite, the orwellian state will grow. That is why brexit is about, full control over us the people. Which sounds OK, if you trust your gov, and it’s direction. So you? I know I dont. All the shit we are blaming Russia for doing, say by day its turning out we also do them.

    I don’t think either is correct in doing this stuff, but I don’t car about what Russia does to its people (well I do, but lots play in a vacuum ) but I do care on what the British and it’s allies are doing greatly. As that effects me my wife children and all I care for.

    The uk you want for isn’t a great thing. Nether is the EU BTW, I’m not a big euro fan at all. Before brexit started, I didn’t care for them at all. I still don’t. However I can still see being withing the EU is better for us thean being out of it.

    And it all comes down to ecomonics. Everything else is built off that. The EU may collapse in a week or in 50 years, that’s the time to leave. If we leave now we are potentially speeding up the break up of the EU. Then we have problems ahead. As In its the first step to a European war.

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    #29829

    Bob Williams
    Participant
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,593

    As if we didn’t have enough uncertainty and plain panic, here’s the Express trying to outdo the Daily Wail:

    http://tinyurl.com/ybj3jqzy

    An earlier Express report today from a French fisherman:

    French fisherman RAGES at EU red tape – ‘BEGS UK to save his job’

    http://tinyurl.com/y7mod45m

    How unusual, if not unique. Conversely, how accurate?

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #29831

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 2,231

    The first point about the EU putting pressure on the uk to decide is true. However its more a case of to get A50 extention all 27 nations have to agree to it, just one can veto it and it’s a no.

    The EU just want this done, either way now.

    However we don’t need any of the 27s permission to just kill brexit. So this is just a tool which they have the right to use. As they really want us to stay. So they want mays deal to fall flat, and them it puts a massive pressure on the uk to either device leave or stay. In a very small space of time.

    I don’t see how this is bad, if we was in this position, we would be doing the same thing. That is terrible that the conservitve party have lead us to this point.

    I watching parliament last night (yt rerun) and its a mess, they are still arguing way they want and don’t want, and haven’t realised. That what your want was never on the table. It’s a legal seperation not a political exercise. There is no deals to be had.

    If the government understood this form day one. Ie we leave and take anything they offer us (or don’t), and planned for the actual event, we may be in a position where leaving won’t cripple us.

    As it is, the government has shit the bed and is just rolling around in it, trying to pin blame on who did it.

    Get her vote binned,  axe brexit, and for god sake bleach that bedding. Or better yet bin it and get a new government bedding set

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    #29875

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    “Theresa May has seen off a bid to remove her government, winning a no-confidence vote by 325 to 306 — BBC Report”

    As turkeys never vote for Christmas either Corbyn is politically naive, or there is a deeper medium term game in mind.

    Perhaps Sinn Fein will take up its six seats as often urged to do by Eire MPs. That would put the cat in the political pigeons!😋

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    #29876

    Bob Williams
    Participant
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,593

    There exists a majority of Remainers from all parties and all shades of opinion in Westminster. The PM is just one of these. Who is to say that this whole mess has not been carefully managed behind the scenes, in order to sow confusion, get the public so sick of Brexit that the electorate will accept a result that sees an end to it all, even if that means remaining in the EU in some shape or form?

    Bob’s very own Conspiracy Theory…

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #29878

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,814

    No she’s just incompetent. Anyone who managed to lose a 20+ lead in the last election to Corbyn couldn’t conspire their way out of a paper bag. Andrew Neil had Lord Snooty backed into corners of his own making on BBC2 this evening. They are pressing them hard now on WTO matters and it’s clear that’s a bunch of half truths too.

    I have absolutely no idea where this is going to end up, but wherever it is it’ll be a mess and the country still divided. There will be no winners, only losers. I can’t see anyone on any side who is capable of bringing the country together.

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    #29879

    JayCeeDee
    Participant
    @jayceedee
    Forumite Points: 1,066

    There will be some winners and they will be the DUP and Northern Ireland for one. The DUP are milking this for all it’s worth and getting more money/investment/prioritising than they might otherwise have got or deserved.

    The SNP are also sitting happily sowing/fermenting/taking advantage of discord so that in all the chaos that follows progress down the road to Independence ( whether the majority of Scots want that or not ) will be made on the back of all the carp that the UK will find itself in. They will be heroes in their own little empire!!

    Turns my stomach, in truth, but so does a lot of political manoeuvring.

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    #29880

    Wheels-Of-Fire
    Participant
    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,216

    Corbyn had to table a motion of no confidence after the government suffed such a historic defeat, it is the default course of action, especially after Mrs May dared him to do it. What I dont understand is Labours threat to table more motions of no confidence in the run up to March 29th. Do they not see that this is time wasting that makes the Brexit they dont want even more likely ?

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    #29881

    Wheels-Of-Fire
    Participant
    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,216

    Infact if Mrs May was a leaver then her best bet now would be to run the clock down. She could spend the next 70 odd days split between pointless discussions with the EU and proposing useless tweeks to her deal to the house. When we then hit the deadline and the default no deal kicks in she can rightly say she offered the best deal the EU would give but it was rejected.

    Come to think of it im not sure thats NOT what she is doing🤔

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    #29882

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 2,231

    I must admit, I now have no idea of what is currently happening, or will happen. I’m now totally at a loss. I feel I was since this began, but it’s dawning on my now I’ve never understood what our government and parliament has been upto.

    Ive never studied something so much over such a period, and at each trun of events I’ve felt further away then when I started.

    That’s it. Someone just tell me when it’s over. Probably some time in the mid 2030s.

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    #29883

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    What I dont understand is Labours threat to table more motions of no confidence in the run up to March 29th

    That is rather easier to understand, and Corbyn has kicked that off with his bit of grand-standing saying that he will not talk until May takes a Hard Brexit off the table. He is perfectly aware that the vast majority of MPs (of both parties) effectively voted against a Hard Brexit. You should expect a continuation of such demands as he tries to totally fracture the Conservative Party.

    The only way May can defeat such moves is to come right out and spell out what she wants from a post-Brexit world as what she has tabled so far is pure pabulum for Conservatives and DUP consumption. If she says that she wants a Norway or Canada deal then other than the Irish border Corbyn will be on much softer ground with his tactics.

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    #29886

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,814

    This is still management of the Tory party first and the country second. Unfortunately the only untouchable person out of all this is TM and she’s the problem. She will put clinging onto power before anything else.

    One thing is the ERG are now a spent force, they proven to have the tactical skills of David Cameron and the planning ability of Boris Johnson. Never mind, Lord Snooty still has his Somerset manor, 5 storey mansion in London and £100 million to console himself with.

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    #29947

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 491

    After the “huge cheer” as Fiona Bruce described it from the Question Time audience this week to Isabel Oakeshott’s statement that No Deal was the way to go, who can doubt that there is a big appetite for such in the country.  Anything less than a complete break with the EU will leave a high percentage of 17.4M Leave voters looking for more.   With Tory and Labour both looking to maintain too many links literally millions of voters feel electorally homeless now that UKIP have gone quite insane under Batten.    A ‘Brexit Party’ is needed.   And what better a name, so that is what was applied for registration on 11 January.   It has now been granted.    And who better to lead than Mr Brexit himself.  Yes, Nigel Farage.

    Grieve, Boyes and Bercow have built and are now lighting many bonfires.    As someone I know said to me this week we have reached what the Yanks call the “Let’s Roll” point.

    Local groups are being organised and gearing up.   Considerable numbers of those who are not normally political activists are coming forward to help, plus even some Tory Party Members jumping ship.   There’s a real head of steam building amazingly rapidly.   Hit particularly the heavily Leave voting constituencies and there are going to be a huge number of Labour and quite a few Tory MPs highly vulnerable.

    “Let’s Roll” is an Americanism and I suspect that another will turn out to be even more appropriate.  If UKIP was a public shout then to coin Al Jolson’s first ever movie words, “You ain’t heard nothin’ yet!”.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #29948

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,814

    You are absolutely nuts if you think No Deal is an answer. But I half hope you get your way so that people can see just what lies they’ve been told. It’s about so much more than the WTO rules everyone keeps banging on about and they’re bad enough.

    If you truly believe what you’re saying there is no room for discussion. It’s like trying to talk someone out of jumping off the bridge when they’re half way down.

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    #29949

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 491

    No, I don’t think No deal is best.    But I do think currently that it is the only option.

    Eire, the EU and us agree there must be no hard border in Ireland.    Yet if there was and the troubles re-ignited it would be UK soil that would be bombed.  Therefore if anything WE have the strongest incentive to avoid such, not Eire or the EU.  I trust you agree so far.   So why the need to put the ‘Backstop Gun’ to our head?    Can you logically explain such.   Macron made clear within minutes of the EU agreeing the deal that he would put that gun to our heads re fishing.   That is the role of the backstop.   Its a gun to our head once we move from the Withdrawal Agreement to the Trade Deal Negotiations.    You may be willing to to submit to such I am not.    Nor it seems are many others either.   I’ll take May’s deal happily.   It seems a great solution and compromise.    BUT only without the backstop in it.   I stress again we already have greater motivation for keeping the Ireland border open than do Eire and the EU.    I will not hand them a gun to use against us when it is not logically needed.   I’d rather take my chances with a cliff jump than stick around to be shot in the head during the Trade Negotiations Stages by a gun we handed to them !!!    If you think that’s mad so be it.   Either way we are in agreement about the word ‘mad’ being appropriate because currently I am mad as hell.

    _______________________________________________________________________________________

    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #29951

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 2,954

    The only option for anyone to leave with any political face is a second referendum. Any political party that allows us to drift into the horror of a Hard Brexit is going to be in the political wilderness for decades.

    The politicians who keep lauding a fall-back to GATT are ignorant or their wealth is overseas. They fail to comprehend that this means a GATT deal on every country with whom we have no legal Trade Agreement with at the time of departure. i.e. everyone!  GATT levies are not optional, countries will be forced to levy the GATT taxes on all our exports. You can say bye-bye to millions of jobs  food rationing and a general recession within months.

    I  note that no Forumite has been able to refute the impacts of GATT.

    This is not FUD, This is not something on which you can take a chance. GATT is a legal obligation on all importing countries without trade deals. It is 100% certainty.

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