Brexit now = CETA +/-?

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This topic contains 1,449 replies, has 20 voices, and was last updated by Ed P 6 hours, 41 minutes ago.

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  • #22765

    Ed P
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    @edps

    I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.

    The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).

    It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.

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  • #30510

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 632

    @Dave

    I did provide a video link.  In the post right below the picture post.  I think that establishes that Leo V. found it funny.

    @Ed

    I’ve not been changing subjects as such.  I’m happy to continue any of the avenues of discussion that were opened.    Which one do you think I’ve retreated from?   And I think I answered the matters that you raised such as NZ and Oz being in a mini-EU or why EU legislation does often get rubber stamped with less scrutiny that home grown legislation.  Do you now concede that or are you retreating from those matters?

    I find it rascinating that folks seem to suggest I am intransigent when at the same time refusing to shift their positions one iota.   Accepting May’s deal provided that the backstop is removed is a massive concession by we Brexiteers.   So are you willing to meet us there or are you intransigent that Brexit is madness and only Remain will satisfy you?

    Must mention this – I am not attempting to change the subject by doing so.   I’d just like Remainers to read this piece from Alex Morton, a former member of David Cameron’s policy unit,  and share their thoughts having done so.   He articulates the key issues right now re sovereignty far, far better than I ever have or could.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30518

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,125

    I did not further pursue the aspect of our Parliament historically outsourcing the detailing of regulation to unelected bodies as it is factual and probably dates back to Guild Hall days. In my view our membership of the EU did not change that very much at all. However my point was that we have a long history of using unelected appointed bodies to finalize laws and regulations. The EU performed much of that leg-work in drafting regulations which were then handed over to our Civil Servants and Regulators for their additions and finalization. If anything our Regulators were over-zealous and often unnecessarily made EU regulations over-prescriptive.

    As our MEPs had already gone through any regulations as part of their roles and duties, then I would hope that our domestic  MPs only looked at principles and left it to our own regulators to do their duty in enacting such regulations.

    If only Brexiteers had fully accepted May’s proposals then perhaps there would be less to argue about, but instead they keep banging the Hard Brexit drum against which I am implacably opposed. I would however point out that in May’s deal putting a time limit on a backstop is utter madness as logically it is no longer a backstop when that limit expires.

    However May’s proposal is just the end of the divorce settlement it does not even start the much harder trade discussions, and for example how we do or don’t pick up the 170 odd trade deals that the EU has already signed. There I could well have more arguments.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Ed P.
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    #30520

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,125

    Alex Morton’s piece is pure journalistic fluff, that makes the wild assumption that one has to put Brexit and other difficult political issues in the same basket.  Frankly I cannot be bothered to explain why the other issues are different as the article isn’t worth the time or effort. It adds nothing to any debate, and I for one would weep no tears if the current Conservative party imploded.

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    #30521

    Dave Rice
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    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,950

    It’s easy to say remove the backstop and we’ll agree everything else because it won’t be changed. Find the Unicorn or I’m out.

    This is exactly what will happen with the Malthouse “compromise”, something would be found to object to, it wouldn’t be difficult in the many things on the hard Brexiteers list. But as that depends on the backstop being changed before it even gets going it’s another Unicorn.

    But I see you are claiming to be talking for all Brexiteers again “we Brexiteers” when in fact that is far from the truth. Before you mention the majority in the meaningful vote remember that there were more remainers than leavers in the No lobby. The No was not a Yes for the ERGs plans.

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    #30524

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,315

    Oh come on Ed. The backstop is never, ever, ever, honest going to come into effect because the EU say they really, really, really will agree to us leaving with a decent deal before that could ever happen. So why not put a time limit on something that will never happen ?

     

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    #30526

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,125

    Oh come on Ed. The backstop is never, ever, ever, honest going to come into effect because the EU say they really, really, really will agree to us leaving with a decent deal before that could ever happen. So why not put a time limit on something that will never happen ?

    So why risk letting the clock run out onto a Hard Brexit?

    If you were just being sarcastic please explain how you square the pre-Referendum Brexiteers promise that negotiations with the EU would be assured, with a position that says that it will be impossible to work out an acceptable arrangement.

    Or are you perhaps saying that a High Tech solution to the border inspections is just Marijuana smoke – with which I would agree as this Government has proven time and again that it is incapable of making any technology work.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Ed P.
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    #30528

    Dave Rice
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    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,950

    I see the Americans are wading in.

    “The backstop is the insurance policy that protects the Good Friday Agreement and the GFA cannot be used as a bargaining chip as the Brexit advocates search for an alternative arrangement.

    Highlighting the role played by Irish-America during the peace process, it notes that pro-Brexit advocates in London have set about diminishing the importance of the Belfast Agreement “almost to the point of dismissing it as irrelevant even though it is a binding international peace agreement.”

    “This is an enormous mistake and only resurrects old animosities over the constitutional integrity of Northern Ireland and has already resurrected old stereotypes that do an injustice to all the people on the island of Ireland, North and South, who overwhelmingly supported the GFA in a referendum held in May of 1998,” the letter states.”

    It seems the ERG are determined to piss off their best hope for one of these super duper trade agreements. You know, the easiest of the ones that are going to be so easy. We can’t even get people to roll over the ones we’ve got through the EU. Do you think they may want more preferential terms for themselves?

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    #30530

    Bob Williams
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    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,778

    VFM: from the link in your post 277 above, I accessed this from the same page: –

    http://tinyurl.com/yb9mz3gz

    Economists predict the UK economy’s trajectory in 2019 ” It does not support the link you gave, in fact totally contradicts the outcome you expect.

    It is now obvious that Brexiteers inhabit a cloud-cuckoo land of the UK surviving the after-Brexit economic landscape and going on to prosper economically and financially. I hope you are all ready for the inevitable storm of “Told You So’s” when the bad times of the next decades arrive.

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #30532

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 632

    Sorry, Bob, I can’t work out which post you are referring to.   I can’t see post numbering anywhere on screen can you post my link that you are referring to, please.

    As for growth forecasts Carney and BoE just downgraded the UK’s predicted growth rate for the year while at the very same time the EU  also published its predictions and upgraded us to 1.3% the same as France, Sweden and the EU average.    Germany was down to 1.1% and poor Italy at 0.2%.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30533

    Wheels-Of-Fire
    Participant
    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,315

    And again Ed. Why is the EU risking a tic down to a no deal exit when all we are asking for this time is a time limit on something they say will never happen.

    The answer  is that the first 500 pages of their agreement dont matter a jot when the backstop kicks in.

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    #30534

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,315

    They really could say what they like in the first 500 odd pages and it wouldent matter. Unicorns for free for everyone, dont matter cos in 2 years you are in a customs union forever !

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    #30535

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 632

    Not heard any Remainer explain why that isn’t the case WoF.   Looks to me awfully like Stockholm syndrome.    Having said that the events of late already leave me in no doubts whatsoever that the EU will fail within two or three years.   In any event there will be a MASSIVE increase in Eurosceptic MEP’s this time  from France, Italy and Germany at the very least.    The latest French poll is 40% in favour of Frexit.   Hardly surprising as Macron is so toxic and a Europhile.   So we will be out in a year or two because there will be nothing to be in.

    Looking at the legal situation it seems almost certain that the backstop breaks the GFA and EU law so the more the EU wants to keep it in the WA the more it flaws the whole WA.   How ironic that will be for them.  Crazy, days, WoF, crazy days.

     

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30559

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 1,950

    This what happens when you combine Brexit fatigue and too much cider Devon couple declare Brexit-free kingdom called ‘Euphoria’ 

    I think I’ve had enough now. The UK is a laughing stock in the world and we seem determined to continue in that vein. The Americans are getting pissed off, the EU has clearly had enough. We are being held to ransom by a small group of self serving aholes who seem happy to beggar the country to get what they want. They will be OK.

    The arguments I see here are mostly jingoist pseudo economic nonsense largely made up or spun to prop up a viewpoint. They are taking a nasty turn towards vilifying foreign nationals and anyone who doesn’t believe in the cause. We have been compared to Chamberlain and appeasement to Germany in a mangling of history. We are told what viewpoints we hold, whether we do or don’t.

    We are told the no-one can predict the future when it’s not in favour of the project and then given rock solid predictions of things like the EU falling apart within 2 or 3 years, various countries voting for leaving, economic Armageddon in the EU (but not here) etc. No of these dogs have yet to bark, like the German car industry and French cheese makers queuing up to demand the UK gets what it wants.

    It’s just not possible to have a meaningful discussion with such intransigence and ignoring of anything which might be negative to the cause.

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    #30560

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,125

    Nude , nude it must be nude!

    Lets settle this once and for all!

    link

    I feel sick at the thought of it – as my wife says, it will never happen as they cannot get the scales off his belly or slime off his back quickly enough.

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    #30561

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 632

    LOL…Ed….saw that elsewhere and thought how strange she doesn’t realise that its the EU that strips the UK bare.

    @Dave

    How strange that you seem to think I am making rock solid predictions.   My words are simply my opinion.   Is it equally true is it not that Remainers make ‘rock solid predictions’ that a No Deal Brexit would be Armageddon.

    My own opinions derive in the main from seeing Project Fear myths falling apart all around me at the minute.  There’s no exodus of financial institutions.  They are advertising more UK jobs than EU jobs.   Its the same in high tech.   London is still the big draw.   Folks say we have more to lose than the EU and that its is us that are not prepared for a No Deal.   Yet its the EU businesses that are panicking.    It is the CEO of the Irish Exporters Association, Simon McKeever, said that if a No Deal is the outcome, “We are, to put it bluntly, screwed.”    Belgium Finance Minister Alexander De Croo meanwhile has revealed that 80% of Belgium companies aren’t prepared for a No Deal outcome.  The UK is Belgium’s fourth-largest trading partner.   In EU’s own growth forecasts for 2019 they have upgraded us at 1.3% and Germany at 1.1%.   Plus Germany will have to bear the brunt of bailing out Eire if it comes to it and domestically can Merkel get support for doing so?    These are the realities.

    On top of that – It is not me saying the backstop breaches the GFA and EU law, it is top lawyers and the UK architects of the GFA.   So tell me, Dave, given such why are the EU so currently dedicated to a backstop they hold will never be used?

    Just to lighten the mood by moving sideways a bit, Brexit has shown in full technicolor that our political system in the UK needs dramatic change.    About the only thing that you and I might agree on I suspect is that we have a Tory Leader who by trying to ride two horses at one time  is destroying and splitting her own party at the exact moment that a Labour Leader is doing the very same to his.   While to complicate matters still further Nigel Farage is running with the new Brexit Party that is now recruiting in earnest and which given the 17m Leave voters could well (even if not winning seats) make many more constituencies than is usually the case, marginals.

    I say again I can’t call what will happen.   But the above are my beliefs and opinions looking at the evidence.    Of one thing though I believe there would be no disagreement from any post’er on this thread – We are in the main in this threat living Groundhog Day(s) in these exchanges.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30563

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 2,368

    @ricedg, its even more astonishing when the remain predictions have historical data to back them up. But the leave have nothing to back there predictions of a great UK triumph.

    They seem to fall back to the EU will collapse, and it seems they wish that true. No matter the fall out that is likely  bring.

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    #30564

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,125

    CIA interference?  They like destabilising anything they see as a threat to US hegemony.

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    #30565

    Bob Williams
    Participant
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 2,778

    One for VFM and WoF:

    http://tinyurl.com/y8tspebe

    Everyone else, if you have never read “The Daily Mash”, it is wonderful, sarcastic, P**s taking on a mega scale. It cracks me up daily. And no, I am not “Psychic Bob.”

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Bob Williams.

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #30576

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 632

    @ricedg, its even more astonishing when the remain predictions have historical data to back them up. But the leave have nothing to back there predictions of a great UK triumph. They seem to fall back to the EU will collapse, and it seems they wish that true. No matter the fall out that is likely bring.

    Best one I’ve heard so far.   Can you point me to the historical data of what happens when a major economy leaves the EU.  Don’t know what we’ve all been disagreeing with if such data exists.   Still all the experts predicted we would be in deep recession rapidly after the Leave vote even before we actually left.  Yet here we are today with the EU just having upgraded its own forecast for UK growth this year and putting us equal with France, Sweden and the EU average all ahead of Germany that is languishing.     If ‘predictions’ were accurate and things were ‘predictable’ there would be no financial markets as there are today, would there?

    No, matey, we are not falling back on the EU collapsing.   Its equally just a prediction also.   But is one looks at the North-South financial divides; the East-West Political Divides; the EU Ideology-Business Objectives Divides; and the rapidly growing dissatisfaction of EU populations with the EU in most EU states, its a prediction that is far from without arguable indicators.   The German electorate was especially is highly disgruntled with having to have been the piggy bank raided re the bailouts of other states and Merkel’s open door policy.  That why AfD has grown.   With us gone and the need, if its a No Deal, for a MASSIVE bail out of Eire how strong could their base become?    What of Italy also?   Plus its looking like another Greece bailout will be needed.

    I remain wedded to the Trading Bloc concept.    But it is the Euro and Political Project that are causing the problems that are increasingly visible.    I ask is the EU capable of serious reform when those in power within the EU are not listening to the populations of its member states.   Not just us but Germany, Italy, Poland and Hungary, etc.     I simply cannot see that it is.

    I do agree with you, Duke, there will be dreadful fall out if, and I accept that it remains an if, the EU fails.   That we will no longer be members would not shield us totally from those consequences.   However, the proven business approach to developing at least some protection from such collapses of one of one’s biggest customers or markets is always rapid diversification.    If we can expand and strengthen our involvement in other markets before such an eventuality then we would at least have some mitigation of the effects of the EU collapsing were that to occur, wouldn’t we.   I cannot see that putting the majority of one’s eggs is a basket that is already showing quite marked signs of potential failure is prudent.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30577

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 632

    Not sure what folks around here’s views are re ‘Gorgeous George’ Galloway.   Some may see him as a far left extremist.   But I was reminded last night of how bizarre are these times and how alliances that would once have been unimaginable have formed due to Brexit.

    Galloway declared on his talkRadio show that provided that Farage’s new Brexit Party was a one issue party (i.e. Brexit) he would support it and even be prepared to stand as a candidate.    Who could ever have once imagined Farage and Galloway in the same party?      Although I can hear some already saying that both are “Self publicising Opportunists”.

    However, there is a huge dynamic of such a possible alliance that simply cannot be discarded.  GG led a convoy of relief into Gaza.   He is markedly pro-Palestinian.  With him onboard accusations of the new Brexit Party being Islamofobic could be disarmed instantly and would complete the distancing of Farage and the new Brexit party from UKIP and its current move in that direction under Batten’s stewardship.

    If I was Farage I’d welcome GG potentially coming onboard with open arms.

    _______________________________________________________________________________________

    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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