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Brexit now = CETA +/-?

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This topic contains 1,795 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by Ed P 1 month, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #22765

    Ed P
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    @edps

    I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.

    The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).

    It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.

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  • #30581

    Ed P
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    @edps
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    Tory party melt-down looms which adds more pressure on May to seek a consensus in Parliament.

    Corbyn’s ‘A’ Customs Union might be a starting point, but you probably have to listen to John McDonald to hear the subtle difference between  ‘A’ customs union and ‘The’ Customs Union.  There is a huge difference but it would need a lot of EU negotiation.

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    #30586

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
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    Frankly, Ed, I think its far too late to avoid a melt down in either of the two main parties.    A total realignment of political divides has occurred.    No more Right and Left as such for the present and foreseeable.  Its Brexit v No Brexit and perhaps even full Brexit v BRINO.    Hoey and Field voting with the Tories, Galloway thinking of aligning with Farage shows how far things have moved.   And, yes, Tories are saying that May should align with Corbyn just as you suggested.   Even around this site folks who in a million years would never have voted Labour are looking like they would do so to stop or soften Brexit.   I’m simply not sure either of the two big parties can survive.   Heck, even 32% of Liberals voted Leave as did a fair chunk of SNP voters (those perhaps who want total independence?).

    You are therefore I suspect right about Tory meltdown.   The Tory MPs have diametrically opposed intent and direction from local Con. Assoc’s.    And even those groupings subdivide fiercely with many senior Tories saying the Art.50 deadline must be delayed while others say it would lead to electoral slaughter in the May local elections if it was delayed.   I’m suspect it would once the new Brexit Party were fed into the equation given the high percentage of Tory voters who would vote for them as a protest at BRINO,

    May truly has hardly nowhere to go.   She failed to take a firm stance at the start seeking to weld her two factions with each other and the two electoral factions (Leave & Remainers) with each other; in doing so, we all agree, she ended up pleasing no-one.

    Buying in on the Labour offer such as to carry her deal through is not the solution it was for Heath in 1972.   First off the DUP may well pull their Confidence and Supply Support.  Heath didn’t face such,   Moreover doing a Labour deal may split the Tory Party this time in that passions are far higher than in ’72.   But we can discard that it might either way.    Surely the bigger threat to the Tories short and mid-term would be that we would remain in ‘the’ or ‘a’ customs union and we would then then be back to 2015 with the potential for the new Brexit Party being far bigger than the potential UKIP ever had.   Now most of the 17M Leave voters have absolutely nailed their colours to the Brexit during the last two years.   Remember UKIP only ever reached 4M voters.  I suspect that if we stayed in the Customs Union that figure could at the very least be doubled by the Brexit Party.    A deal with Labour would, I am personally certain (only my personal opinion) be toxic in the extreme for the Tory party for that reason more than of any internal Tory rifts.   I simply do not see May going for it but who knows.

    Lastly, to look at critical dynamics, will Farage throwing down the gauntlet very hard make a lot of Tories shy about backing a Cooper amendment this coming week or the one after?    I suspect it just might.   And with that gone the EU I personally believe would blink because not until its gone will the EU will think of No Deal as anything other than a impotent bluff.   Its going to be an interesting couple of weeks, isn’t it?

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30588

    The VFM Addict
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    Oh…. I forgot.  The EU position is that the WA cannot be altered.   Corbyn’s position seems to be that he will support the WA if the UK commitment is different from that in the WA.    Yet Tusk and Verhofstadt welcome Corbyn’s proposals – while also saying the WA is the only and best deal for everyone.    Can anyone explain that contradiction?    I think I can.   Corbyn’s plan locks us into the Customs Union voluntarily so the EU plan to lock us in manipulatively against our will via the backstop is no longer needed.   That says it all to me (note I said me).   You may see it differently.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30593

    Ed P
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    @edps
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    From a pragmatic standpoint I think Corbyn’s plan is the best of a range of bad choices.

    I just cannot see that the UK will be able to cut better trade deals than the EU, we have neither the trading clout or the experienced negotiators. On paper if not in practice it gives us options to cut our own trade deals, but in practice we will sit on their coat tails.

    If anything Brexit so far has demonstrated the total incompetence of both our politicians and negotiators. Going into negotiations and hoping to ‘wing it’ as Davies et al have done is a recipe for failure. We should have guessed that any group that just kept mouthing the meaningless and irritating  ‘Brexit means Brexit’ phrase were just a bunch of Greylings with different names.

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    #30596

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
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    I am finding myself increasingly grateful to that interfering cow Gina Miller. If it had not been for her legal challenge then the government would have used the royal prerogative to push through the WA long ago, just like they did when we joined the EEC in the first place. As the WA in its current form is NOT what I voted for I feel I owe Gina some thanks. Bet she wishes she was more careful what she wished for.

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    #30600

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
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    I understand where you are coming from, Ed, but that means a Customs Union which in turn means a Brexit Party resurgence on an even bigger scale than 2015 UKIP and then we will be well and truly into Groundhog Day.

    I truly, quite apart from by personal belief in Brexit, find that entirely objectively I can see nothing that will prevent even more division in the country and perpetual ‘Battle Brexit’ for years to come,  other than – (i) a suck it and see No Deal Brexit – or – (ii) a WA with softer backstop.    I can no longer see a Cooper style amendment passing in the house because many Tory and Labour MPs will fear the rise of UKIP2.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30603

    Ed P
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    @edps
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    A big Farage extremist party would be something that I would welcome. It would destroy the nasty right wing of the Conservative party and set the stage for a centrist Government of common sense.

    I think (unlike you I’m sure) that once the electorate realise that they never voted for all the many ills of a Hard Brexit, but that it all came down to controls on immigration,  that support for Farage would quickly die away as it has in the past. If that were coupled with further exposure of the lies told by Bojo et al, and the dubious sources of illegal pro-Brexit contributions then there would be a very healthy swing to the centre.

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    #30609

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
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    I had an interesting discussion in the pub at lunch time that brought to my mind something I knew but hadn’t really considered the consequences of.   Let us assume we don’t end up with a No Deal Brexit but end up with May’s WA or some other fudged agreement.   What then happens over the next two years?    The WA just concerns withdrawal and the really big battles on trading commence.   How p’d off will Joe Public become during that period?   More ‘nothing but Brexit’ in the news and inevitably more concessions asnd some folks feeling the £39B was given away for nothing.   How many folks will begin to think ‘sod it we should have just left No Deal’ for one or more of those reasons?     I had forgotten this.   But Bobby (an Ambulance Driver in his thirties who is a Remainer) argued that even the WA with a soft backstop, as he sees it, will still lead to the rise of another big New Brexit party for that very reason; which is not something I had given much thought to.   He may be right.    Perhaps it will be ‘Battle Brexit’ for the rest of our lives.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30612

    Dave Rice
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    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 3,823

    You’ve just realised that? There’s another decade of this crap to go. All the talk down here is of UKIP V 2. Fantastic, split the Tory vote and the Liberals will be back in here and the Tories will be out nationwide. Cameron will have engineered the very thing he feared.

    To hear them down here you’d think Lenin had been reborn. Mind you they thought Blair was a bit Marxist. You ought to holiday down here VFM, you’d love it.

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    #30613

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 1,849

    At a tangent and totally off thread the ‘West Country’ lost much of its appeal to me seven or eight years ago.   I had reason to be in Bristol, its outlying hamlets and then over to Clevedon all for the first time is several decades.    I was shocked.   I heard not one of the West Country accents I recall from my childhood and teen years when I was often in Bristol because we had relatives there.   Not hearing that accent once left me feeling something was missing that I had expected on the trip.   Perhaps TV and the Net (i.e. youtube, etc.) have had a more severe suppressing effect on accent in your part of the world than they have in the Midlands and up North.   Or maybe its too many South East types moving your way when retiring or others buying second homes there.    It all left me quite sad.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30614

    Dave Rice
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    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 3,823

    Bristol has long been cosmopolitan, my neighbours are from all over the Uk and some from the EU. I suppose having Airbus, BAE, Rolls Royce and the Mod nearby adds to that. As you probably know, Bristol has long has a big Polish community.

    This part of North Cornwall is slowly turning into North London-on-Sea, but not this time of year. Rick Stein’s empire is a little bit bigger every time I come down but his (excellent) bakery in Padstow will be shut, still The Chough bakery will be open as it has for the last 30 years+ but that’s very “gentrified” now. They featured Alex Polizzi ‘s The Fixer in 2012.

    I doubt I’ll see a black or brown face or hear a European accent all week. Two (?) years ago it was rumoured a “muslim couple” were going to rescue the 24 hour petrol station at St Kew Highway. The pub erupted. I have no idea if they did as we don’t come down that way any more since the EU paid to have the A30 dual carriageway’d. I’m not going to ask in the pub!

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    #30615

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
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    Funny you mention the Polish community.   My Great Aunt, a Londoner, married a lorry driver from Bristol and they lived there.   We visited them every now and then.   One of their neighbours was Polish and had been a WW2 RAF Fighter Pilot.   I never got to speak to him but saw him a couple of times.  He walked with a limp and I was told he had broken a leg very badly when he had had to bail out.   As a young lad in the 1950’s it was quite something to see a ‘Real WW2 Fighter Pilot’ and one who had had to ‘Hit the Silk’.    It was all so like the WW2 movies that were about in those days.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30618

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 1,849

    Back on Thread

    Well the cracks are really staring to show in the EU.   Italy has not merely had enough of the EU seeking to impose fiscal controls on it, it is also seeking some autonomy re trade deals.

    The Telegraph today reports that Italy is drawing up emergency plans to safeguard financial stability and keep trade with the UK flowing even if there is a No-deal Brexit, if necessary through a bilateral deal between Rome and London.

    The country’s insurgent Lega-Five Star coalition is increasingly worried that a mishandling of the EU’s Brexit crisis could push Italy’s fragile economy into a dangerous downward slide and risk a funding crisis for its sovereign debt at a treacherous moment.

    Well these Italian guys really know how to p the EU commission off, don’t they?    I guess Tusk will  book their reservation in Hell for them too.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30620

    dwynnehugh
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    @dwynnehugh
    Forumite Points: 1,525

    My first and hopefully only post on this most infuriating topic – I voted to stay in as my kids asked me to do, my heart said ‘out’. Anyway I accept the result.

    However, my knowledge of current EU leaders is not at the forefront, but hasn’t Edouard Phillippe said that he would never allow such a vote, as Cameron allowed to happen in the UK.

    Me wonders why?

    The more you meet people the more you understand why Noah took animals instead of humans

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    #30621

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
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    Well thats a nice easy one.

    2. He is scared what the result might be.

    And 1. By far

    You must do as you are told by your self appointed betters little man ?

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    #30622

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 3,408
    #30623

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
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    Me thinks that a lot of the public simply followed the age old and reliable rule – See what the majority of politicians want and pick the reverse.    Fortunately, for us Brexiteers the current crop in Parliament and all ex-PM’s who are trying to put their oars in haven’t worked out that that’s the rule.  All tongue in cheek of course (Errrmmm…….probably….LOL).

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30627

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 7,573

    BRINO as the Hard Brexiteers derisively call it actually yields everything the British Public voted for.

    You can only prove that it does not by quoting the paragraph in the non-existent Brexit Referendum Manifesto!

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    #30632

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 1,849

    BRINO as the Hard Brexiteers derisively call it actually yields everything the British Public voted for. You can only prove that it does not by quoting the paragraph in the non-existent Brexit Referendum Manifesto!

    You are correct Ed but only provided we are not in a Customs Union or the Single Market.

    That’s because the two major parties clarified what Leave meant by saying during the 2017 GE that they would honour the Ref result and leave the CU & SM.   In 2017 85% of the electorate voted for parties that pledged such.  That’s some overwhelming mandate is it not?

    So BRINO only fulfills what voters voted for in 2016 confirming such in 2017 if it means we don’t end up in a CU or the SM.

    On another theme – the Europe wide theme of growing dissatisfaction with the EU – a recent poll in Norway showed that 66% of their electorate do not want to join the EU.   But at the same time, as Bloomberg report, anti-EEA sentiment is also rapidly growing.   There is a desire to bin the EEA and go for a free trade and co-operation treaty instead.    As I keep saying the EU is under siege in every direction.   Latest predictions are also that a third of MEP seats are likely to go to Eurosceptic parties in the May elections.   If Brexit is delayed and we have to elect new MEPs I’ll bet more than a third of those will be Eurosceptic, probably around 52%……LOL.

    Oh dear, that’s another load of folks about to be consigned to Hell by Tusk I suspect.   I reckon, Lucifer, is going to be faced with a housing crisis pretty soon at this rate.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #30645

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 7,573

    Where did you obtain your facts? I cannot get even close to your quoted 85% figure.  It must be another load of lies from Brexit HQ.

    This was the Labour manifesto in 2017. It’s attitude to a Hard Brexit is very clear:

    ““Labour recognises that leaving the EU with ‘no deal’ is the worst possible deal for Britain and that it would do damage to our economy and trade. We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option and if needs be negotiate transitional arrangements to avoid a ‘cliff-edge’ for the UK economy.“”

    “Labour is making a priority of retaining arrangements close to the status quo with the Single Market and Customs Union.”

     

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