Brexit now = CETA +/-?

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This topic contains 1,635 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by The VFM Addict 1 day, 12 hours ago.

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  • #22765

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps

    I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.

    The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).

    It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.

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  • #31678

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 2,126

    Well everything and anything is still a possibility.

    (I think) I said I thought we would end up with her deal as TM’s only weapon was scaring the ERG / DUP into voting for it when the can got kicked as far as it would go and the moderates finally got fed up and found some balls.

    We seem to be moving in that direction but the votes are either so extreme either way i.e. a drubbing or fag paper close, that I’m sticking with the prediction anything is still possible, especially now the moderates are revolting (a bit) and you can see the DUP sphincters wobbling. If they crumble the ERG will follow, their ladder to climb down will have appeared.

    I was at a Hikvision roadshow today and Brexit got mentioned with regards deal or no deal. Nothing about costs as it’s still all up in the air, it was lead times. They’re already subject to a weeks delay as their ships (from China) are queuing up waiting to get into port, IIRC that’s Rotterdam for them. But if extra paperwork is required they expect the same sort of delay now being caused by stock piling preparing for no deal.

    No panic, but if anyone needs large numbers of run items or special order kit, give them lots of notice. I wonder how much has been spent on surplus kit, the warehouse space for it and the wages of everyone involved? Ignore any biased figures, common sense tells us it’s a lot.

    So there is a cost attached to No Deal even though it hasn’t happened and a cost to Brexit even though it hasn’t happened either. No predictions required but of course we can all argue as to precisely how much.

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    #31682

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,352

    I’m sorry but if anyone thinks the route we are now set on will leave us economically better off than would a hard Brexit I am certain they are wrong.

    I will not debate the macro economics as neither of us have enough hard information on the impacts on our existing exports to the EU.  What I would say is that there would be huge economic and social impacts on certain sectors of the UK economy. Sheep farmers for example.

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    #31683

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,478

    I won’t debate the macro’s either but I will say that we can set subsidy’s suitable for our own economy if we just leave.

     

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    #31687

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 842

    I dispute not a word that you said there, Ed.   This is why I always believed it vital that May play hardball in the negotiations.   Anyone who makes clear that they are not prepared to walk will always get chewed as indeed May was.    The EU do fear a No Deal and would have been prepared to offer a balanced FTA along the lines of Canada ++; indeed even Tusk extended such an offer.

    So, Ed, where are we today?  The EU know we will pay them £39B no matter what and will accept literally anything they demand because we are too fearful to ever walk away.   Human nature; and the burden to get the best deal they can for their remaining members; and the desire to demonstrate that no-one can leave their bloc on reasonable terms; all leaves no question whatsoever in my mind that we will get utterly atrocious terms during the trade deal negotiations to come.     That will have huge economic and social impacts not merely on certain sectors of the UK economy but on all sectors.    Such will be truly high octane fuel to enable the extreme right to light fires in the UK like never before.   It was this I always feared and why I was so adamant that a clean break and short term pain was worth bearing.    I believe it is inevitable if May’s deal passes that at some point we will renege on the WA relying on Art 62 of the Vienna Convention which at best is weak argument anyway.   When we do the the wrath of Europe will be far, far greater than it would have been had we hard Brexited today.

    I believe history is clear that a truly bad deal ultimately and inevitably results in severe conflict be that at its least social and political and at the worse military.   I simply cannot condone the tactic of using the possibility of Art 62 Vienna as a means of cajoling the DUP and ERG into supporting May’s deal because such of itself gives licence to the UK subsequently reneging on the WA.

    Future history I have no doubt will look back to today and wonder how our politicians (metaphorically) not having the courage to bite the bullet now are instead going down a route certain to result in a far more devastating barrage of bullets from all angles in the years to come.    I severely dislike as do many here, Donald Trump.   But of one thing he is utterly correct.   At times one simply has to walk away not matter the problems such may precipitate because not being prepared to has far more severe consequences.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #31690

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 842

    Someone just pointed out a fact that I missed.   Don’t know why but it made me chuckle but it is madness personified so perhaps that’s it.     In last nights vote on an extension the Brexit Minister made the closing remarks recommending to the house the Government Motion for an extension.   Following such he marched into the division lobby to vote against it.  You truly couldn’t make it up, could you.

    The duplicity in the house is not merely visible these days but it seems to be literally flaunted with aplomb.

    Oh and I forgot, the Tory Chief Whip rather than support the government position abstained.    😂

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #31693

    keith with the teef
    Participant
    @thinktank
    Forumite Points: 644

    All very disapointing. Looking away from the embaressment that is the UK government. 😣

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    #31695

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 842

    You know the grassroots Conservative Party are VERY, VERY ANGRY when this video appears on the Conservative party’s grassroots website.   ENJOY.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #31697

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 2,505

    There is noting good going form this mess, wrhter we leave or not now. We are a joke. If we are not already, the UK will become a meem.

    The one positive out of this mess, is it has highlights what a sh=tshow parliament is. And changes are needed. The contry is pissed, and anger is growing by the day.

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    #31700

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,352

    I won’t debate the macro’s either but I will say that we can set subsidy’s suitable for our own economy if we just leave.

    Just perhaps a fact you should note, export subsidies are not something you can apply willy-nilly as they can in fact be illegal under WTO anti-dumping rules (you cannot sell below cost for example). Also subsidies would have to be applied very quickly by our creaking bureaucracy to avoid the Channel ports being blocked by decomposing Welsh lamb!

    As always the Devil is in the detail that is why this subject is too difficult on which to make accurate statements.

    Yes we could for example access a flat payment to each Welsh farmer to support them back to CAP plus EU grants level, but they would need at least part of that next month which would mean another DWP style disaster in the making. Someone would also need help in quickly finding an alternative outlet for all the lamb. Our broken democracy cannot act quickly enough to set up and pay such schemes this year, and maybe not even next year.  That is the hard reality of crashing out without a deal – some people will suffer life changing/threatening hurt.

    It would need a ‘Yes Minister’ ‘brave and bold’ politician (or perhaps Bojo)  to brush aside any resulting concerns and their impacts on  the next election!

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    #31702

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 2,505

    In regards to the farmers and the EU subs, I think they have had it to good for too long. The whole subsidiary should of been on a sliding scale to help them with any transition. 40 years is long enough. I can imagine we now have 3rd gen farmers, picking cheques up for the most minamal effort.

    I bet there is a large percentage of them, that have no idea how to farm properly and economically. That’s a sweeping statment, but I bet there is some truth it. Why would I invest time, effort and money learning new skills that I thought I’d never need.

    I half expect if we do drop out, they couldn’t produce half of what would be expected of them. They would all be knocking on the pms door for massive grants to modernise. Farming equipment isn’t cheap. Million qiud harvesters etc..

    A bit of a rant, sorry.

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    #31706

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,352

    I’m sure there is some truth in what you say, but such changes have to be phased in, Otherwise unjust pain will be caused. We do not have time to do it properly, and a bunch of clowns who I would not trust with anything.

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    #31707

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,478

    I am now well read on the WTO rules Ed.

    And I didn’t even mention them !

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    #31709

    Bob Williams
    Participant
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 3,100

    In regards to the farmers and the EU subs, I think they have had it to good for too long. The whole subsidiary should of been on a sliding scale to help them with any transition. 40 years is long enough. I can imagine we now have 3rd gen farmers, picking cheques up for the most minamal effort. I bet there is a large percentage of them, that have no idea how to farm properly and economically. That’s a sweeping statment, but I bet there is some truth it. Why would I invest time, effort and money learning new skills that I thought I’d never need. I half expect if we do drop out, they couldn’t produce half of what would be expected of them. They would all be knocking on the pms door for massive grants to modernise. Farming equipment isn’t cheap. Million qiud harvesters etc.. A bit of a rant, sorry.

    The majority of Lincolnshire (and I suspect all East Anglian) farmers have large farms and have formed combines over the years. The majority are profitable due to economies of scale: they also help out other farmers all over England and Wales when they can, such as during the Cumbrian and Somerset floods, when many farmers here cooperated to supply and transport hay and Kale to those who had no winter feed. They also share agricultural machinery costs by buying the big stuff between several farms. They are going to be mostly unaffected by the loss of EU subs, and in any event the government has committed to replacing it with a British government equivalent. A lot of Lincolnshire & East Anglian grain goes to Europe, but they are also negotiating with other countries to find other exports. Probably why 90% of Lincs farmers voted Leave?

    Remember where your food comes from! Lincs & E. Anglia could support the whole country.

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #31710

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 842

    The mood is moving rapidly to May’s Deal (i.e. the WA) to take us out of the EU and then Art62 Vienna to take us out of the May’s Deal.     Legal advice is moving that way although many suggest that while legally viable it would politically be most unwise.    I’m sure they are right.     That will result in a mess which, I have not the slightest doubt,  will make a hard Brexit right now look like childs play compared to it.  But it gets worse.

    The route to Art62 V. exit from the WA/Backstop lays in unforeseen circumstances or consequences occurring.    One unforeseen circumstance is acknowledged as being that it has caused huge civil and social unrest.   Yeah right 😏 !!!    Publicise that and one is tantamount to issuing an invitation to riots on a scale equal to or greater than the poll tax ones.   Talk about giving the far right high octane fuel to light fires it seems to me this gives them the matches to go with it.

    I’m drawn back to the old joke that the EU was playing chess but May was only capable of playing Chequers.    Personally I’m not sure the whole HoC working in unison could play a decent game of chess.    The end game here is entirely predicatable because the opening and middle game were played so very badly.   But it seems to me that the HoC cannot even collectively see what’s coming despite it rapidly becoming ‘kin obvious if one studies rationally the state of the board.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #31716

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,352

    I’m afraid I do not understand the relevance of needing to break Article 50 – why, what does that achieve other than  politically inflaming both the DUP and the IRA?

    Unfortunately Irish sectarian/religious politics, have never made things easy.

    You talk of the Far Right as something to possibly fear, but I would also worry about somehow dragging in the IRA (Not really Far Left?). They have already set their small markers. I think as a result that I’ll avoid Weatherspoons pubs in future as their owner has recently publicly stated his position and backing as a Hard Brexit supporter.

    However, I think your summary of a fscking potential disaster is unfortunately correct, whichever leave option is taken.

    Roll on the next four years (plus) of trade negotiations just to help us forget!

     

     

    • This reply was modified 3 months ago by Ed P.
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    #31722

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 842

    Not

    I’m afraid I do not understand the relevance of needing to break Article 50 – why, what does that achieve other than politically inflaming both the DUP and the IRA? Unfortunately Irish sectarian/religious politics, have never made things easy. You talk of the Far Right as something to possibly fear, but I would also worry about somehow dragging in the IRA (Not really Far Left?). They have already set their small markers. I think as a result that I’ll avoid Weatherspoons pubs in future as their owner has recently publicly stated his position and backing as a Hard Brexit supporter. However, I think your summary of a fscking potential disaster is unfortunately correct, whichever leave option is taken. Roll on the next four years (plus) of trade negotiations just to help us forget!

    Not sure I follow you there. Ed.   Why would the DUP become inflamed if the UK escaped a signed WA at a later date by invoking Art 62 Vienna thereby eliminating the dreaded backstop?    This seems to be the very argument being used to get them to support May’s WA.   In effect – Don’t worry about the backstop we can tear up the whole WA if we want to.    Such was the weasel’s (i.e. Gove’s) position almost from the start.  He backstabs everyone and everything else so why not the WA.

    The point that is all too often forgotten is that there will be no hard border in N.I. unless the EU forces Eire to set one up.   This is true irrespective of whether there is a No Deal Brexit now or a pull out from the WA at a later stage.

    I’m not sure how to interpret your last sentence.   But I assume it was being sarcastic and if so we are in total agreement.    It is the Trade Negotiations once the WA is passed in the HoC that will inflame opinion; certainly on the side of Leavers and in that I am sure the EU will try to screw us in every way may well p’off a whole lot of Remainers also.

    Yep I think for certain that we are going to hell in a handcart.  So it will only be the Green party who have remotely anything to smile about.  After all, handcarts burn no fossil fuels and are eco friendly.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #31724

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,352

    Well maybe we have two different views of Ulster/ Eire relationships.

    In my simple view the GFA solved a lot of huge problems and all sides wish to keep it. The IRA do not want anything that differentiates favourably towards the UK on the Ulster side of the border and the converse for the DUP. They all want a quiet life. An EU/UK trade bloc solves all that at a stroke, but means differences set in when/if ever we manage to cut a trade deal with anyone more meaningful than Fiji.

    Your apparent  no back-stop scenario probably requires us to go down the zero tariff route, but first I think that someone had better honestly set out the negative implications of that to the electorate. I think the no EU imposed border is wishful thinking. They have shown that protection of the EU community is a red line to them. They have not buckled yet, why should they do so later. Yes it will be an EU hard border, but the IRA will blame the Brexiteers, and maybe the DUP.

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    #31725

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 2,126

    Deliberately leave a back front door for smuggling open then blame the people affected when they complain. Nice.

    We have already signalled we are willing to break WTO rules on the very first day!

    Then there’s Article 62. WTF? How will that ever apply?

    Walk away without paying your debts if you don’t get what you want.

    Who the hell is going to want to deal with us when we behave in such a way? How can we be trusted to keep our word?

    We are turning into a laughing stock, Trump must be thinking how easy it’s going to be to do us over.

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    #31729

    Ed P
    Participant
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,352

    I apologise to @VFM. I am muzzy-headed with a May throat so I just could not get the context of his initial post.

    I now think I see that Article 62 is there to offer comfort to those opposing the backstop, that come whatever, the Backstop can be broken. In that case I think that Dave is correct, there are limits to how devious the UK can be without earning the name ‘Perfidious Albion’ all over again and being treated as a diplomatic pariah.

    I used to be asked to act as a business go-between between a certain Arab country and India as they found that they could not trust India. We really do not want to get into that position.

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    #31731

    The VFM Addict
    Participant
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 842

    @ Ed,

    I have stressed before and will stress again that I, like many others, am convinced that the backstop breaches the GFA.    I have little doubt that the courts will rule such and the early stages of seeking a judicial review are under way.   If the courts rule it does breach and that ruling occurs after the WA is ratified on both sides then there is no question that Art62 Vienna can be both legally and morally applied.   It would not be a case of us reneging on a treaty it would be a case of us having to withdraw to protect the GFA which pre-dates the WA.   The GFA is of course something which both sides (us and the EU) have been vociferous in holding sacrosanct.   The EU would have great political difficulty, given its position to date, to insist the WA backstop is applied once it became clear that doing so would breach the GFA.

    As something of an aside I suspect the EU has no real grasp of how difficult it would be to set up a hard border in N.I. were it to seek to force Eire to implement one.   This makes interesting reading.

    @ Dave

    I understand your position and thoughts re smuggling.    But for main trunk road crossings of the N.I. border a technological solution is possible as is being set up for Calais (see my link earlier in this thread).  Yes, minor road smuggling will still occur on the N.I. border.   But that is unlikely to be and preposterous for the EU to suggest it to be such a major threat to the integrity of the EU & CU.   One thing is sure and that is that it is unlikely to be on anywhere near the scale that occurs every single day along the EU’s southern borders.   Such is indeed also how most illegal immigration occurs.    How many landing points and marinas are there along the EU’s southern border?   My guess would be in the high tens of thousands.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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