Brexit now = CETA +/-?

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This topic contains 1,672 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by Dave Rice 5 days, 10 hours ago.

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  • #22765

    Ed P
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    @edps

    I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.

    The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).

    It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.

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  • #32636

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
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    Looks like I am going to be offered a vote in the EU elections again.

    If UKIP or Nige’s new party field a candidate in my area I will vote for one of them. If not then for the first time ever I WILL NOT VOTE.

    Only a massive bloody nose for our ruling elite will make the slightest difference .

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    #32637

    The Duke
    Moderator
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 2,583

    I don’t think I’ve evre voted  In an EU election. I think I’ll defo have to have a go, I may not get another go

     

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    #32643

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 2,275

    Well I’m sure the Telegraph legal dept will be itching to take you on if it’s that easy.

    Here’s a shock result, in an exclusive poll of express.co.uk readers 82% intend to vote for Farage’s lot. They are four times more likely to vote Labour than Conservative!

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    #32644

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    The Legal Profession are heavily Remainers.   Lots more business if one can add the ECJ appeal level to disputes.   So who knows what enthusiasm the Telegraph’s legal team had.

    As for the evidence you saw it for yourself.    There was irrefutably polling evidence of No Deal being the most popular option.    But the IPSO decision relied entirely on there having been none.    Alas the principles of appeal do not permit as grounds for appeal citation of evidence which was available pre first instance action.    In other words if you failed to use what was freely available  – Tough Luck.

    Re the latest polling –

    The clever money is rapidly buying into the Tories achieving less that 10% share of the vote in the European Elections.   You can still grab 12/1 if you are fast and that’s a terrific bet.   A poll of one (Westminster) safe Tory seat had over 50% of Conservative Party members there intending to vote for the Brexit Party in the EE.    As one commentator said, the Tories around the country are going to have trouble finding more than a handful of activists willing to help get out the vote.

    You are correct, Dave, that Labour look like having the largest share of the vote but not as much as UKIP and the Brexity Party combined.   Given that its PR and not FPTP that will mean quite a cohort or Eurosceptics to batter the EU and that will add even more weight to the total Eurosceptic lobby already anticipated from and building in other EU states.   Plus its pretty damn certain that the European Parliament will not only have to face Farage again but now even a Rees-Mogg too……..LOL

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32658

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,545

    Can someone explain to me how PROPORTIONAL representation works in the EU’s head ?

    At the last elections the NW England region got to elect 8 MEP’s on a turnout of 1,754,687 votes. This is down from the original 10 MEP’s because of EU expansion. As far as I can tell the number of seats in the EU parliament did not increase so they had to be spread more thinly.

    Get this though. In the London region a turnout of 2,200,475 voters got to elect, er, 8 MEP’s !

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    #32659

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,545

    Of course being the EU it gets worse once your MEP takes his seat.

     

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_groups_of_the_European_Parliament

     

    As there a are hundreds of political parties in Europe your MEP won’t be representing his own party. First he will be part of a European coalition party and then, like as not, that party will be part of an EU parliamentary coalition party.

    To my knowlage no party in history has ever won an overall majority so they sit around in catered meetings all day negotiating cross party voting agreements on every single issue !

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    #32660

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
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    I really dont see how my opinion ever gets a look in during all this.

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    #32661

    Wheels-Of-Fire
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    @grahamdearsley
    Forumite Points: 1,545

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament

    It doesnt really matter anyway as the EU parliament only has about as much power as our house of Lords. See above.

    If push comes to shove either the EU council, EU commission or both can TELL them what to do.

     

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    #32681

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    The hard right eurosceptic Finns party just missed out on being the largest party in Finland’s Parliament yesterday with 538,731 votes, narrowly behind the Social Democratic Party who won with 545,544.    However, the Finns Party Leader, Jussi Halla-aho, received the most votes of any candidate in the country.  He won more than 30,000 whilst the Leader of the Social Democrats’ leader secured just 12,000.   These results shocked even the Finns Party which was expecting a good result but not such a resounding one.    Brussels will be shaking today because it seems likely the eurosceptic vote in the EU elections is going to be even bigger that they have been fearing.    Roll on the EU elections if we must stay in until at least October.   In order that we can add still further to the growing eurosceptic cohort in the EU parliament.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32683

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
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    No real surprise I guess but nonetheless part of the Brexit Party’s plan to demonstrate it is getting high profile candidates; under an hour ago, John Longworth, former Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, was announced as a Brexit Party candidate.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32694

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,559

    I suspect that long before any election the majority in Parliament will cut a deal with the EU and make laws such that any Farage desires are frustrated.

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    #32696

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    LOL………Ed…..with the Brexit party already starting to surge that would be a clever thing to do and guarantee even more of the current MPs to lose their seats.     Don’t forget what Martin Bell did in Tatton.   Just 24 days out from an election  he declared his intention to stand against Neil Hamilton in one of the safest Tory seats in the country and Won !!!     Hamilton was despised but no more than as currently are many, many MPs in their local constituencies for ignoring their constituents’ opinions re Brexit.    Stick a household name in those constituencies under the Brexit banner and the Bell-Tatton Effect stands every chance of being replicated; doubly so because it is Tory activists who are most against such a deal and many Labour strongholds that had the largest Leave votes.   If May’s despised deal is made even more despicable with Corbyn add-ons then that’s even more for 17.4M to be angry about.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32718

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    Now beleaguered car company Nissan will cut 600 jobs in two plants in Spain.

    That’s on top of Ford’s announcement last month that it is slashing 5,000 jobs in Germany.

    If all this was happening in Britain the media would be falling over itself to blame it on Brexit wouldn’t they.    😋

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32721

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,559

    Probably with good reason!😁

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    #32757

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    The latest YouGov poll re the Euro MEP election voting intentions by party.   Such needs no comment other than the train is really starting to roll…….

     

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32758

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,559

    I’ll go back to my previous post – in order to stop a Conservative Party General Election meltdown May and the majority of Conservatives will want to put Brexit to bed asap, but without a majority the only way this can be done is to cut a deal with Corbyn. Corbyn quite correctly will not trust a possible future Bojo PM as far as he can spit. Hence there is a fair chance that May will just say the hell with the ERG and cut a binding deal with the EU.

    Triggering a General Election with a fractured party will not be in the interests of any Tory, hence she could well be able to explain all this to the bulk of Tory MPs and sit back knowing she is safe from a confidence vote for many months.

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    #32759

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    As I now understand it there is a route by which the party membership general can force May’s removal from office but it takes 10,000 votes.   That wagon has only just started to role but it seems 65 local association chairs are already on-board.     Give it a week or two and I suspect that the target number will be hit.

    Returning to the matter of the rolling Brexit party wagon if one looks at what Farage is actually saying you will see that his rhetoric is very different from 2015.    Although obviously gearing up for the EU elections just in case they go ahead his words leave no doubts that he is preparing a party capable of fighting the next GE.    If May cobbles a deal which leaves us closely aligned with the EU and in a Customs Union that can only fuel still further the Brexit Party engine.    Pandora’s box once opened cannot be closed.    I think we are heading towards the end of a two party system for certain. Moreover one in which the Tory party is not even one of the two biggest parties.   May’s mistake is that the group she has alienated most are her own party activists and without the staunch support from such any party is up the creek without a paddle.   Only a hard Brexiteer has the slightest chance of re-engaging with that legion; no-one who has remained in May’s atrocious cabinet could.    Tory MPs are not so naive as to fail to recognise such.   My bet is that, if not BoJo, Raab will be on the 2 candidate shortlist and it seems he is already gathering both a significant team around him and funding in preparation for that battle.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32764

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 2,275

    BoJo, no. Raab, could be. Someone from the new generation untainted by this mess, wouldn’t surprise me. They can be as hard line as they want, the current numbers in Parliament will be even more against them. Euro elections are one thing, we’ve seen that before. a GE is something else. A Brexit party doing well will probably just open the door wider for everyone else.

    Every strategy of the hard line Brexiteers has failed to produce any Brexit at all, effectively ruled out a No Deal scenario and protected TM for a year. I don’t think they can plot their way out of a paper bag. Imagine them running the country.

    And to think Cameron started this to stop the fracturing of the Conservative Party and that a hard line attitude to Brexit will probably hand power to those who want the opposite. If there is some arch Bannon style strategist they’ve effed it right up. Mind you he’s now trying to turn Italians against the Pope. FFS. I tell you what, why don’t the ERG start blaming the Queen for something, that would work.

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    #32768

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    Dave, you miss the point that the Tory MPs need and know they need to appease their grass root members.   That above all must be their priority or they’ll be deselected or find themselves canvassing all on their own come the next GE.   This is why a tough Brexiteer must be in the last two and if one is will be voted in by the grass roots.   Tory MPs are between a rock and a hard place of May’s making with her pledges that Brexit meant Brexit; that No Deal was better than a Bad Deal; and that we would leave no matter what on 29 March 2019.

    Your comments re the ERG to me have no relevance whatsoever.   Farage is not in the ERG and had no power re the mess that occurred in Parliament although conversely that mess gives him immense power now.    Truly study closely his current rhetoric it is totally unlike his in 2015.   He’s pushing the Democracy argument hard, very hard.   That will resonate not just in the Euro Elections but just as much come the next GE.    The Remain vote will be split come the next GE across many parties whilst the Leave vote will rally cohesively under just one The Brexit Party.    Can’t you see that. Events have conspired to give Farage a very decent platform to fight a FPTP election; and even Tory grass roots are starting to rally to his banner.   The old dynamics no longer exist.   As I say, if this starts to dawn on MPs, especially those with narrow majorities, then No Deal will very rapidly return to their table and a fudged EU deal before the GE could only serve to fuel still further Farage’s engines and platform that democracy was abused.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32770

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 2,275

    I think you’re being overly optimistic about what a protest vote in the EU elections, if it happens on the scale you hope, will have on Westminster. In the unlikely prospect of a Farage government you’d see the quickest soft Brexit deal done and dusted as No Deal simply cannot be allowed to happen.

    Even Farage on Sky this morning finally admitted that there will be a high price to pay. When challenged that people didn’t sign up to be poorer, he said you cannot put a price on “democracy” and people would be prepared to pay it. That’s the sort of strategy that gets you slaughtered in a GE but people don’t care about in the Euros. He seems to be pinning his hopes on an effect from a Euro showing affecting Westminster policy, which I agree it will but not how he wants.

    The Tories MPs can listen to the grass roots all they like, it won’t change anything but the Tory Party leader who still won’t have the arithmetic in Westminster.

    You’re correct, the ERG comment has no link to Farage. It was just a flippant comment on their total lack of any strategic nous whatsoever. Everything they do backfires.

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