Brexit now = CETA +/-?
July 7, 2018 at 1:08 pm #22765
I must confess to being totally uncertain why the UK has been pratting about for the last 12 months. By all accounts when ‘submarine’ May at last emerged all she did was to unveil a slight modification of the Canadian deal(CETA) with the EU.
The +/- comes about as there will still be free movement of EU citizens across the borderless Ulster/Eire border, albeit with no rights of abode, but that never troubles the people smugglers. There is also uncertainty over our biggest export earner – the Financial Sector. The EU court will arbitrate all trade deals and the Court of Human Misrights will remain unchanged. (This was never part of Brexit and cannot be untangled from the Northern Ireland Friday Agreement).
It strikes me that the last six months has been all about internal rifts in the Conservative Party and banging blimp heads together.
July 31, 2019 at 6:40 am #35373
I must admit I am increasingly bemused when folks say that “we” negotiated a deal or that there was a Withdrawal Agreement (although I admit I do myself use the term WA as shorthand for what May arrived at). The truth is of course that “we”, neither Parliament nor the People, ever negotiated nor agreed anything. In the main it was until published a behind closed doors arrangement committed to be little more than May and Robbins. I find the word “we” somewhat offensive and in effect a falsehood on the part of the EU. The UK, neither Parliament nor the People ever reached an agreement with the EU.
As regards the £39B one must remember that any future budgetary commitments made by the UK prior to the Brexit Ref/Vote were inherently linked to the UK being a member and benefiting as would all other members from that EU expenditure. To me it seems preposterous that we should be expected to foot the bill when no longer in receicpt of any of the benefits that are supposed to flow from such. Metaphorically, to my mind if we will not be receiving “the goods” then I see no moral obligation to pay for them.
Lastly I note everyone talking of the current fall in sterling but it is like nothing compared to other falls we have experienced while in the EEC/EU. Try 1980 to 1985 Sterling fell from 2.45 USD to 1.04.
The swing back from LibDems to Labour will dent the LibDems but not be enough to save Labour from defeat. I agree with Alastair Campbell – Labour is unelectable while Corbyn remains.
Not carefully BoJo’s emphasis. He is being adamant that he rules out going for a GE before 31 October. Clearly establishing that if such occurs it is because of others trying to thwart Brexit. However, there is no question he is already conducting an Election Campaign in his UK tour. The plan is clear if one looks at all the markers. Take our Labour while they are still saddled with JC.
Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in troubleJuly 31, 2019 at 7:12 am #35376
I equally find the statement that ‘WE’ agreed to Brexit to be repulsive. WE did not even know what the hell was meant by Brexit, and neither did the Conservative party with its mantra of ‘Brexit means Brexit’ To compound the lack of a common ‘WE’, nearly half those who voted did not agree with it in any shape or form.
Lets not split hairs about who signed up to the basis of a withdrawal agreement as the rest of the world certainly thought that we had the basis of an agreement.
With regards to BoJo’s statements, just remember that he has a well deserved reputation as a consummate liar who puts himself first in all things.July 31, 2019 at 7:42 am #35379
We because it was our democratically elected representatives that negotiated on our behalf. That’s how our system works, the very sovereignty that is being taken back (not that it ever left). “Taking Back Control” I believe it was called? Anyone who voted Conservative as well as Leave, this is exactly the process you voted for. I voted neither so can say I didn’t have a hand in it but I can see it’s “we”. Leavers need to take responsibility for what they set in motion not whinge because they don’t like the outcome, that’s what us Remoaners are supposed to do isn’t it?
Honestly VFM, is that a valid comparison? It’s like saying we live in the Arctic because of the temperatures in winter 1963. The drop since the referendum can be traced to largely a single event and it’s continuing fall out, all self inflicted and likely to continue. Find me someone who says the opposite.
Did some fact checking on Japan being an alternative market for the Welsh farmers. If the deal works as well as anticipated it will account for less than 3% of the exports currently going to the EU. Time for some honesty from the Leave With No Deal campaigners. Not going to happen is it?July 31, 2019 at 12:46 pm #35380
We became a laughing stock when our PM came back from 3 years of “negotiating” with the EU with an EU plan to nobble us for ever more.
They laughed even harder when our PM decided that the biggest commons defeat in history was no reason to ditch the plan.
They almost wet themselves when she brought it back unchanged 2 more times ?July 31, 2019 at 1:05 pm #35381
The main body of the WA counts for nothing because the final section dealing with a “possible” backstop means that it would never apply.
They could have prommiced free money for all and a unicorn in every stable and it would have made no difference because it WOULD NEVER APPLY.
The backstop kicks in if the EU does not decide to play nice and agree to a proper agreement within 2 years.
Why would they do that when the backstop gets them everything they want ?July 31, 2019 at 1:12 pm #35382
And finally, they will never agree to drop the backstop because then they would have to do the things they said they would in the main agreement and they never ment for that to happen.July 31, 2019 at 2:10 pm #35383
A very one sided opinion. This is going to cause big problems in NI and that will scupper any trade deal with the US. It’s not up to Trump any more, it’s Congress and I suggest you catch up on what they have said.August 2, 2019 at 8:00 am #35405
Looks like Dave was correct in stating that the Liberal Democrats were on the uptick.
Their win in Brecon and Radnorshire gives warning to the hard Brexiteers that other parties will strategically withdraw in the face of a common enemy. (Plaid and the Greens did not contest). This makes many Conservative seats vulnerable and is also a warning to Labour that some of their seats in the North-East could be at risk due to the Brexit party’s presence. However the Unions are starting to become very vocal in their case against a hard Brexit which perhaps tempers that risk.
Bottom line BoJo the mendacious American clown suddenly has more problems with less options and an early election could be fraught with risk!August 2, 2019 at 9:18 am #35406
The Boris bounce works two ways, he may get some ex Tories back but he hardens those of us against him.
I think Labour may well be toast, sit on the fence long enough and it will collapse under you. I won’t trust them on Brexit and the (wider) more rural West Country area has a Liberal tendency. I suspect Tory South Gloucestershire is pooping it’s pants especially after the local elections.
Like London, Bristol generally has large Labour majorities, but Bristol North West is a Tory vs Labour dog fight. Bristol is Remain so I don’t think they’ll be flocking to the Tories, will they go Lib Dem? The Bristol Labour MPs seem to be well liked and do their jobs, but the same could be said of a lot of good and long standing councillors now sat on their hands.
Up North I’m sure the Brexit party will do well pinching votes from everywhere.
If Corbyn doesn’t change his tune soon and convince us he means it, and get the anti-antisemitism sorted, I think they may well suffer. If Labour want a chance Corbyn needs to go and someone like Yvette Cooper get in. Not going to happen until it’s too late.
I think the next GE, whenever it happens, will throw up a hung parliament and God knows who will ally with who. I’m not sure being out will do much other than change the Brexit votes back to where they came from. Just being legally out doesn’t settle the future of the country, it’s still to be determined and could still involve a much closer relationship.
Tory hard line Brexiteers could well be ruing the fact they let TM’s deal pass them by and indulged in so much infighting. Instead of arguing over the backstop they could have got on with it and sorted out a deal inside the transition period that would have suited them better.
EDIT I see Project Lies continues. James Cleverly says that we have to leave the EU to have free ports, ignoring the fact that there are many in the EU and we had them ourselves until Cameron abolished them in 2012. So they must have worked well then? More empty promises that sound good but don’t stand up to scrutiny.August 2, 2019 at 2:02 pm #35409
Looks like Dave was correct in stating that the Liberal Democrats were on the uptick. Their win in Brecon and Radnorshire gives warning to the hard Brexiteers that other parties will strategically withdraw in the face of a common enemy. (Plaid and the Greens did not contest). This makes many Conservative seats vulnerable and is also a warning to Labour that some of their seats in the North-East could be at risk due to the Brexit party’s presence. However the Unions are starting to become very vocal in their case against a hard Brexit which perhaps tempers that risk. Bottom line BoJo the mendacious American clown suddenly has more problems with less options and an early election could be fraught with risk!
Not a bad result for the Tories at all losing by just 1,425 votes given that May had saddled the constituency by making then re-stand the very MP who, due to his conviction for fraud, had caused the by-election to take place. Notable is that if the Tories and Brexit Party had reached a pact and stood a single Leave candidate he/she would have won more votes than the LibDems and Labour combined. It follows that if the Remain parties ‘pact’ in certain constituencies forcing the Leave parties to do likewise then the result suggests that Leave is in the ascendancy. Having said that, as the Tories stood a convicted fraudster, realistically we can read very little from this by-election because we can have no idea how much that impacted voting.
Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in troubleAugust 2, 2019 at 2:18 pm #35411
The longer things go on, and the more people understand the short and medium term impacts of a hard Brexit the less popular that position will become.
Impacts on jobs, living standards and talk of having to bring out the troops to quell riots will do wonders for Tory and Brexit votes. I honestly wonder if the loyalty of the troops could be counted on in the event of such things happening.
‘ May you live in Interesting times ‘ is purported to be an old Chinese curse, and it looks like the disunited Kingdom is a victim.
“It is a general rule,” they say, “that the worst of men are fondest of change and commotion, hoping that they may thereby benefit themselves”August 2, 2019 at 4:23 pm #35412
The Remain pact is a bit of a misleader too, the Lib Dems won by 4%, that’s more than the 3% Plaid brought to the party and the Greens didn’t stand last time. James Cleverly called it a “dirty deal” ignoring the fact it didn’t cost tax payers a £billion like his parties did. Playing to the gallery I think in case BoJo doesn’t last too long, he really is turning into Mr Nasty.
You can play what if games with parties standing or not until the cows come home and come to any result you like, it’s all guess work for now. I think we can expect more of these deals but it’s hard to see the Brexit Party trusting the Tories enough to stand down in any numbers. I think they’ll be looking to destroy the Conservatives when BoJo hits the mathematics of Parliament and fails to do anything. Likewise Labour when Corbyn vacillates once more, indeed I think Labour have lost those votes whatever (will the Tories stand down there I wonder)?
The momentum does seem to be towards those with a clear strategy on Brexit one way or another. I for one only trust the Lib Dems to achieve what I want, Remain or if not as close as possible. Labour, who knows what they’ll do even of they take us out. Tories and Brexit are now No Deal. So where does that leave moderate Tories of the Ken Clarke mould? Lib Dem, that’s where.
We are a Tory seat that voted Remain with an ERG member who is locally despised in a region with historic Liberal leanings. It would take lots of Tories to switch with a lot of Labour, but I can see it happening. Especially if Airbus is looking in jeopardy.August 2, 2019 at 6:15 pm #35415
The DukeModerator@sgb101Forumite Points: 2,926
I said a good year or more ago, this should be a good time for the LDs to make a come back.August 3, 2019 at 9:23 pm #35430
The US will not negotiate a free trade deal with the UK unless a new digital services tax is dropped, according to a newspaper report.
And there you have it, they have us over a barrel and they know it. What else will the want, what will China demand? Never mind a “can do” spirit will see us through.
Of course, if like France we were part of the largest trading block in the world…August 4, 2019 at 8:09 am #35432
keith with the teefParticipant@thinktankForumite Points: 1,135
There is so much deliberate misinterpretsion going on in this country with all subject matters: Brexit, race, jews excetra that I haven’t got a clue waht’s going on.
The back stop seems to be all about re-unite N Ireland with the South like East and West Genrmany.
Brexit? Well thats just deliberate misinterpretaion of Brexit.August 4, 2019 at 9:21 am #35433
The IRA want a Hard Brexit as they will be able to use it to demand the referendum on uniting Eire and Ulster and calving themselves off from the UK.
Brexit is all about dividing what was a United Kingdom, even England is divided!
What is good for the IRA cannot be good for the UK, and trying to blame the EU for something the Conservatives instigated is just trying to obscure the truth.August 4, 2019 at 12:29 pm #35434
JayCeeDeeParticipant@jayceedeeForumite Points: 2,048
The EU themselves aren’t devoid of blame in this situation. Had they been more accommodating over the years when the UK needed either a concession or a relaxation of something, as opposed to just an agreement, then the outcome of the referendum may have been different.
The last PM to come back from Brussels with anything meaningful was Maggie. All others have come back with their tails between their legs after hearing a “NON” from them. Blair got nothing, others tried and failed, Cameron got nothing like what the UK needed, the only difference was that he came back, tried to bluff, got called on it and then threw his toys out of the pram.
The one exception to that was Major, who went there with what they were happy with – Maastricht – and came back calling it a victory, setting off the whole federal problem we now find ourselves in.
It’s a club we should have been an associate member of, for ( minimally ) trade and security. The Common Market/European Free Trade Association/whatever other name it took was viable and benefited both sides, the Federal/United States of Europe gave us nothing we needed and took away more than we were ultimately prepared to sacrifice.August 4, 2019 at 12:35 pm #35435
Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in troubleAugust 4, 2019 at 1:10 pm #35436
Had we have had MEPs who did their job properly instead of constantly sniping, then they would have been able to gain the support of the other MEPs. It was after all a democratic process that including veto rights in many cases.
I suspect the evil hand of the CIA in much of the recent turmoil, as the right wing of the US hated the way that the US was losing power and influence to the EU. It would be extremely interesting for Facebook to look for external agents (not just Russians) in pro-Brexit propaganda.September 9, 2019 at 10:46 am #36532
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