Coronavirus – 2019-nCoV
- Dont be silly Lee
January 23, 2020 at 4:55 pm #39964ParticipantThe VFM Addict@thevfmaddict
Nothing substantial to say yet but I have a very bad feeling that this thread will be needed soon.
We are long overdue for a very serious viral pandemic and the way China are acting I think its already far worse than they are saying.
- This topic was modified 3 weeks, 3 days ago by The VFM Addict.
Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble
February 12, 2020 at 7:50 pm #40576ParticipantBob Williams@bullstuff2Forumite Points: 12,106
Whilst I tend to agree partially with Richard here, scaremongering is not helpful. But this just happened:
Latest UK case, a woman flying in from China, developed symptoms after landing, called NHS 111. All good, but that was an aircraft full of people, are they being traced? What about possible contacts in the airport? Travellers flying worldwide from Heathrow. I’m waiting for more on this. Btw, ship air is very much like aircraft air, it recirculates around the ship. I would not like to be aboard the Diamond Princess, atm it’s a floating Test Centre.
- This reply was modified 4 days ago by Bob Williams.
If it’s the Psychic Network why do they need a phone number?
What’s right is what’s left if you do everything else wrong.
If women ran the world we wouldn’t have wars, just intense negotiations every 28 days.
--- Robin Williams00February 12, 2020 at 8:00 pm #40581
Almost 5% of the people on my estate work at Heathrow. Heathrow is in my Borough. As for those on her plane how many used the Underground to get back into central London before the balloon went up. Sorry, Richard, but I’d be an idiot not to think it possible I’m now in a viral war zone.
- This reply was modified 3 days, 23 hours ago by The VFM Addict.
Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble00February 12, 2020 at 8:02 pm #40582
Richard, oh that your prognosis is correct, but it is not borne out by the WHO statistics or expert analysis..
WHO statistics 42708 confirmed cases and 1017 death., or if you just want to look at new figures these were 2484 new cases, and 108 deaths. Unfortunately this gives a CFR much closer to 2.2% than the mathematically challenged East Anglia professor’s number.
I prefer to accept the reports of the acknowledged World experts in the field i.e. Imperial College London who have calculated a CFR of 1% outside China i.e. a mere 0.4-0.5 million deaths in the UK. This number will almost certainly come to pass if our Government continues to fear panic rather than action.
This disease is unusually difficult to handle. The vast majority of those infected get only mild symptoms but some of these mildly infected ones do go on to infect others.
Logically it is best to take proactive action at an early stage. If you have to wait for some two to three weeks after someone becomes infectious to confirm covid-19 then it is best to ask a victim where they have been and who they have contacted as soon as covid-19 is suspected. Waiting for confirmation just makes the problem bigger and risks losing information on people and places.
This government wrongly fears panic more than it fears the disease. As a result we get Mushroom Matt and other apologists trying to play down the situation.00February 13, 2020 at 3:12 am #40587
CT scans (far better at looking at what’s happening in lungs than X-Rays) are now being used by China as the mainstay of diagnosis. I must say I personally prefer this clinical approach to diagnosis essentially because it is instant. Although there will, I assume, be a very slight potential for mistaking multi-lobe bacterial pneumonia not associated with Covid-19 for Covid-19 in patients. However, that risk is likely to be no greater than the risk of a false negative or false positive lab test.
Using this approach new cases in China have sky rocketed in the last 24 hours. I would also suspect that we can be certain that these are relatively severe if there is clear CT evidence of significant pulmonary inflammation. The finite limit on the availability of testing kits removed we can now begin to see the true growth in cases. But today’s figures versus yesterday’s really only define the difference between the two method’s of diagnosis. Until we have several days of the new approach we can’t begin to see whether the trend in China is towards a declining or accelerating growth rate. My personal suspicion is that as folks slowly return to employment in China rather than hiding at home this virus will seize the opportunity to capture new victims. Yet I’ve not seen any expert voice an opinion about that dynamic.
In other somewhat obscure news China seem to be partially waking up to the ramifications of this virus being airborne. In Beijing area, “The operation of the air-conditioning and ventilation system in offices and public places should be halted once a suspected or confirmed case of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus is identified there, according to a circular issued by a State Council joint task force.”
I’m personally convinced that airborne transmission via unprotected eyes is a vector heavily implicated in the high infection rate of this virus. All official workers in China appear to be wearing goggles but almost all of the public are wearing only masks. Someone needs to look at infection rates in these two groups. Logically the official workers who are dealing with many infected individuals should have a far higher infection rate than the average China Joe. If they have not or the difference in rates is small this would go a long way to supporting the eye transmission theory. Note I am not suggesting that we compare those in full hazmat suits with China Joe; just those where the only difference in PPE between Chinese Joe and Chinese official is goggles. To me, who had many discussions with doctors during my time in the pharmaceutical industry about pollen affecting eyes in the hayfever season, this vulnerability and transmission vector is ‘kin obvious. Folks who severely suffer runny eyes during the hayfever season find it is solved pretty much completely by wearing goggles when out.
Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble00February 13, 2020 at 6:43 am #40588
44 more confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess as I post. This data was released 3 hrs ago but still nothing about in on BBC News website. Is the MSM being told to delay or drip feed bad news? I said in an earlier post I expected a final ship total over 300. I think now that that’s a gross underestimation. Japan enough is enough – Evacuate that ship TODAY !!!
- This reply was modified 3 days, 13 hours ago by The VFM Addict.
_______________________________________________________________________________________00February 13, 2020 at 7:12 am #40590
I was spot on with naming him Mushroom Matt!
It turns out that the local Brighton Health Authorities have been doing the right things and taking proactive action. The man believed to be a super-spreader (for want of a better description) was a scout leader and apparently went to a number of scout meetings as the local Health Authorities closed 10 schools in the Brighton and Hove area and told parents and children to self isolate. Exactly the correct moves. Unfortunately Mushroom Matt feared panic rather than seeing such action as reassuring. Had it been publicised it may have caused a few others to needlessly isolate but that would not necessarily be bad.
Unfortunately the Mushroom is still at work and no news has yet emerged on how the London incident is being handled. Complete honesty would have been a much better move.00February 13, 2020 at 10:06 am #40592
Oh, that is a contradiction. Yesterday’s news said that he had not been to any scout meetings since his return and admission to hospital. Which is the false news?
Brighton’s schools have given the option to worried parents for children to stay away for a few days, it is half-term from Friday afternoon anyway.
Quote “Parents were told: “If you wish to keep your child off of school at this time, then we will authorise this absence.”
I can trace nothing saying schools are closed and pupils are locked out. Is this more false news designed to create worry perhaps?
Yes there is fear and worry being spread, as FDR said, “We have nothing to fear except fear itself”.
Ed that you love conspiracy and spreading dodgy tales and innuendo with glee, but your rapture is too clear to behold.
VFM, The woman who is the latest patient returned from China, where she had picked up the bug. She felt unwell on her return, rang 111 and was tested, found positive and admitted for treatment. Any contacts she had made are being actively sought. The normally visible mister did not need to intervene, the staff did and the system did and are doing what was needed, their jobs.
Our job is to keep rational are we all managing that challenging role?00February 13, 2020 at 10:47 am #40593ParticipantLes.@oldlesForumite Points: 1,506
I continue to watch the John Hopkins reports daily, and was rather surprised yesterday to see the big FALL in new cases. Today, more than made up for yesterday. The little graph has been amended a few times in how and what is shown, but now there is a linear graph, a logarithmic one and a daily count. Yesterday the Log version looked very wrong, today corrected. With a few more days, a best straight line fit may lead back to day zero, when the first case was found, then add a few more days back should accurately pin point actual Day Zero of the infection.
It will be interesting to see how “Wet Markets” are reviewed, replaced, then monitored over the next 10 years.
How many more Chinese “Leaders” heads will roll, and how far up the tree will that reach.
Les.00February 13, 2020 at 12:31 pm #40594
I visited the local hospital with my wife today, all as normal, except that the usual 60 minute delay to appointments was dropped back to 42 minutes.
On the way we passed the Corona Virus Pod. About the size of one of those asbestos remover’s changing pods. All looked very shining, and unused. It is to be hoped it will remain in that pristine state.
Les, I spotted the changes, it appears that China is having some issues coming to terms with managing the response and the outbreak, rather than their response to the news about the problem. There is no doubt that they were not on top of the issue for far too long, hoping that if nothing was done or said it would all blow away. While I share your concerns about their dodgy food practices, we should not skip over the MERS outbreak. Every needs to know that poor food practices bite anyone in the behind if they foolishly encourage Zoonotic illnesses to evolve. Currently, there is a big outbreak of Ebola that has been quietly rampaging, but smaller numbers travel into and out of the widely affected areas.00February 13, 2020 at 1:18 pm #40595
Your words suggest that she contacted 111 almost immediately after her return but all reports say it was a couple of days after arriving before symptoms presented. It seems she traveled home on the London Underground from Heathrow. Heaven knows how you identify all the passengers she was close to for more than 15 minutes during that journey from Heathrow or for that matter stood close to milling around the baggage carousels at Heathrow and who would not all be from her flight.
All the Epidemiologists I have heard speaking are of the opinion there will almost certainly already be three times the number of infected individuals in the UK right now as we are aware of. So that’s two out of three spreading without tracking. Of course as it takes root in other countries plane landing from any country may have an infected individual on them. It will get in; if not now next week or next month. It will then bloom. The big difference ‘tween this, SARS and MERS is its R0. It is far more infectious than the other two even though it causes less fatalities per infected individual. The high rate of reproduction (i.e. its R0, the new cases generated per case) means it will not die back until there is approx, 65% herd immunity in the world population. This is why ICL estimate that 60% of the world population at least will ultimately become infected before this is over. Its all good known science and proven modelling techniques. ICL also calculates 1% fatalities. Normal flu on average kills 0.01%.
_______________________________________________________________________________________00February 13, 2020 at 2:43 pm #40599
Any truth in the rumour that I heard that ‘Google is gearing up to produce millions of their Google Glasses so that each arriving passenger will be forced to wear them to allow tracking of all contacts for up to 21 days’? It is being said this is the only way to keep track of them all other than closing the borders for the next month, both BA and Ryanair air were though to object to that plan.
00February 13, 2020 at 3:39 pm #40601
- This reply was modified 3 days, 5 hours ago by Richard.
The ninth case is a Chinese national, who failed to follow protocol. After ringing 111 she took an UBER to the hospital where the reception staff who saw her are now in self seclusion at home. This is a probably inevitable consequence of travel. If I were to make the mistake of travelling to a foreign land, knowing the protocol for such cases would not be the only issue, nor would it be the first issue I would face.
Can anyone argue with that point?00February 13, 2020 at 7:15 pm #40602
Thanks Richard I was wrong, I did not double-check my source of information. You however are also wrong, I take no pleasure in having to rely on rumours thanks to Mushroom Matt. This is of general concern in the South East, and the Brighton MP will be raising the general concern about the lack of communication.
Btw he did run a yoga for runners class while infected, and the fall-out from that may be why the comment was made about 10 schools being affected.
00February 13, 2020 at 8:45 pm #40604
- This reply was modified 3 days ago by Ed P.
Just to expand, the Brighton & Hove news ran this story:
“Parents at Portslade Aldridge Community Academy (PACA) were emailed on Friday afternoon to tell them that a pupil was being advised to self-isolate by officials as part of the investigation into the Hove father’s case.
However, in a subsequent email sent to North Portslade councillor Peter Atkinson on Friday, headteacher Mark Poston has said this is a “precaution that has been advised for a number of students in a number of schools”.This morning, a PACA spokesman stressed that the school did not say that the local man diagnosed with coronavirus is a parent of pupils at PACA. (He was)
Brighton and Hove News contacted the council to ask which other schools had pupils who have been advised to self-isolate.
Brighton and Hove City Council referred us to Public Health England (PHE) which has so far not responded.
It’s believed that PACA sent out the letter to parents as a result of speculation on social media.”
The absence of any response from PHE (Mushroom Matt) was the probable origin of the rumour about 10 schools being affected which segued into 10 schools closed.00February 13, 2020 at 9:20 pm #40605
Reported in the Evening Standard –
Speaking about the woman with coronavirus who took an Uber to Lewisham hospital, Rachel Thorn Heathcock, a consultant at Public Health England, said: “We are in contact with Uber to ensure the driver receives advice and information on what to do should they feel unwell in the coming days.”
“As the journey was less than 15 minutes, the driver did not have close sustained contact with the individual and are not considered high risk.”
Would this Rachel Thorn Heathcock be happy then to sit with this infected and symptomatic lady in a cab for 14 minutes without any PPE; provided that she could leave the cab before the 15 minutes expired?
I personally would have thought the location and circumstances of a contact are far more critical than its duration. A cab is close confinement, especially in this weather when all windows are likely to have been closed in the car. Surely 10 minutes contact in a cab is far, far greater risk than 20 minutes chatting to someone on a bus stop bench out in the open? Especially if one is luckily sitting upwind of the infected person.
I truly don’t see the logic of the 15 minute rule. It seems too arbitrary to me and ignores circumstances. It also implies one can spent one’s day with dozens of infected people but not be high risk provided you spend less than 15 minutes with each of them (just being sarcastic there).
- This reply was modified 2 days, 22 hours ago by The VFM Addict.
- This reply was modified 2 days, 22 hours ago by The VFM Addict.
_______________________________________________________________________________________00February 14, 2020 at 9:53 am #40609
I think PHE are struggling with how to handle potential contacts on public transport.
We now know that the Hove ‘super-spreader’ travelled by train from Gatwick to Hove a journey time of about 30 minutes. The actions of PHE at that time were somewhat irrational in that they contacted station/train staff who would only have had fleeting contact, but made no attempt through the media to contact anyone who may have shared the journey with the unnamed (at that time) ‘super-spreader’. This was similar to their action with respect to bar staff at The Grenadier who were told to self isolate, but customers were given no instructions.
If PHE had given out details of the journey time and whether he was in the front, middle or back of the train, together with a request for such people to dial 111 that would at least have been helpful. Luckily it appears that such precautions were unnecessary, but there seems to be a gaping hole in PHE procedures when it comes to potentially multiple contacts.00February 14, 2020 at 1:09 pm #40614
……… If PHE had given out details of the journey time and whether he was in the front, middle or back of the train, together with a request for such people to dial 111 that would at least have been helpful. Luckily it appears that such precautions were unnecessary, but there seems to be a gaping hole in PHE procedures when it comes to potentially multiple contacts.
We can’t know that.
Some folks suffer this mildly and don’t even know it is what they have so never contact medics. But those people are still infectious. This cycle may repeat. This ‘chain’ is only picked up when the virus ends up in someone who suffers severely enough to suspect Covid-19 and contacts either 111/a medical centre/hospital. There may of course often be more than one undiagnosed generation before this happens because 82% of folks do not suffer a severe infection. That can take several incubation periods.
The Government and media are aiding such covert progressions telling people so often that currently they are most unlikely to have caught this hence folks will not contact medic for fear of appearing paranoid.
We simply cannot know as yet if Super Spreader spawned any currently invisible chains and most probably never will. It is Covid-19’s sharp bipolar profile as regards its effect on those infected that adds to its danger. Chains can grow significantly before first being detected.
_______________________________________________________________________________________00February 14, 2020 at 1:44 pm #40615
I wonder, do ‘Hyper-Ed’ or ‘Paranoid-VFM’ know or understand the epidemiologists’ recommendations?
Current thinking is that breath is the least likely vector for transmission but that hand contact is the predominant transfer route. This is either directly hand to hand or via objects. People touch their face, eyes, or mouths about 15 – 20 times per hour. So, rail personnel, ticket checkers, etc. in the front line along with cash handlers and the like. This fits the super-spreader situation. He spent time and would have handled objects within the shared living space where others became infected. Public transport is likely to be a secondary ‘transfer station’, featuring proximity and frequent handling of shared objects, hand rails, doors, strap hangers, etc.
Personal hygiene is, once more being stressed, using disposable handkerchiefs, hand gel and frequent hand washing to avoid both depositing virus or transferring it to hands and then face, eyes or mouths.
The present hysteria being whipped up in Brighton is a silly, distracting and unproductive noise. Is the main instigator who whipping up hysteria playing for an election role?
Other than the quarantined and now cleared traveller, has anyone been found to be infected in Brighton?
Anyone heard about the present, not theoretical epidemic of mumps currently set to kill off a few children and sterilise a few young men? I guess those risks do not matter too much.00February 14, 2020 at 1:50 pm #40617
This is what I was talking about above, Stealth Outbreaks. Note also when reading that article how often taxi’s are implicated; which is what I was suggesting in an earlier post. Anyone in a cab with an infected person seems at very high risk of contracting Covid-19.
_______________________________________________________________________________________00February 14, 2020 at 2:04 pm #40618
Richard, normal flu and colds are communicable via the airborne route. It is far from remote that SARS2CoV will also be. Yes, the other routes are more likely to be the infection vector for any given individual shown to have Covid-19, just as you are more likely to die of a heart attack than a road accident; but does that mean, the law aside, no need to wear a seat belt?
This epidemic will blossom in part because folks think it can’t be Covid-19 I have. Its just normal flu. So they carry on as normal and for them it self resolves. However they infect others. Of the generations they spawn not all will be as lucky.
- This reply was modified 2 days, 5 hours ago by The VFM Addict.
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