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Coronavirus – 2019-nCoV

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Man Made yes or no?

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  • Dont be silly Lee
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  • #39964
    Participant
    The VFM Addict
    @thevfmaddict

    Nothing substantial to say yet but I have a very bad feeling that this thread will be needed soon.

    We are long overdue for a very serious viral pandemic and the way China are acting I think its already far worse than they are saying.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

Viewing 20 replies - 21 through 40 (of 269 total)
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  • #40019
    Participant
    Drezha
    @drezha
    Forumite Points: 2,291

    UK Dog walkers should now make themselves aware of the symptoms of Lyme Disease (from Deer Ticks). I knew someone in the US who had it without knowing about it for months and it played havoc with his body and brain before finally being cured. Had it been identified early on he would not have been as badly affected.

    Any walkers to be honest. We brief the cadest on ticks and tick checks whilst out hiking, usually when we’re in Wales for our adventure training weeks,

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    #40020
    Participant
    Richard
    @sawboman
    Forumite Points: 6,433

    That is one of the ones that I was quizzed about 24 years ago. We do have deer in the area but many of the paths are so overgrown that they are largely impassible. No one should be unaware of the risks though as far as I am aware covering your legs and not running any unprotected skin through long grass is essential. However, that is not the only hazard one should watch out for these days.

    Returning to the original subject the extent of the Chinese failures to deal with the issue in a more organised, timely and honest way is now emerging. It has been bubbling away for some time, but they had not wanted to come clean. The World Health Organisation are still fence sitting, over when to call into effect their response to the problem. In China, the rate of cases is said to be expanding rapidly, though there is still some doubt about the exact risk it poses. The accelerating  case load is before the effects of the Chinese New Year hit. Apparently, those most affected have been those with pre-existing health issues, but this is not an exact guide to its future progress or impact.

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    #40036
    Participant
    The VFM Addict
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 2,490

    OH SHIT – 2019-nCoV is now known to be infectious during its incubation period unlike SARS and Ebola.     Infected people are infectious before they are even showing any symptoms.     Containing such viruses is close to impossible.   Forget checking folks temps at airports.   Doing so means nothing.    Put simply it is now close to certain this will be a massive world-wide pandemic.

    Engage Pray Mode immediately…………..

    _______________________________________________________________________________________

    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #40040
    Participant
    Ed P
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 13,902

    They have now shutdown Hong Kong schools for one month.

    Oh well, it will remedy the dumb-bell age distribution in the UK!

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    #40045
    Participant
    Bob Williams
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 12,109

    I have regular sneezing and phlegm issues, due to scarred lung lining and Barretts Oesophagus. Had one in the Close today as I got out of the car coming back from a very wet Mablethorpe. Our resident Close moron and professional village idiot: “Have you been to China?”   Me:  “No but I have a display cupboard full of it.”

    Cue vacant expression on moron’s face, exit moron, stage right.

    How am I to know if I get it anyway? I’m like that all the time. I would probably shrug it off as normal and survive because my body wouldn’t recognise it as anything out of the ordinary. On the basis of ‘ignore it, it will pass.’

    If it’s the Psychic Network why do they need a phone number?

    What’s right is what’s left if you do everything else wrong.

    If women ran the world we wouldn’t have wars, just intense negotiations every 28 days.
    --- Robin Williams

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    #40048
    Participant
    Richard
    @sawboman
    Forumite Points: 6,433

    Does anyone really know the transmission methods for this infection? While the Chinese do have many excellent minds and hard workers, the flow of doubts coming from them at the moment suggest that the brighter minds are not yet focused on the issue. If it not being spread during the active phase, e.g. coughing and sneezing, this suggests it uses some other method. Contact, water or what? The current feed back is akin to saying we do not know anything. Is it simply exhaled at all stages? Can it be /is it water born? Is it just passed by careless hygiene?

    The absence of a real methodology or if there are multiple ways to pass it a route map of avoidance steps, is more likely to create panic than solve anything.

    Is that the idea?

    What weak features does the virus show? Do light, chlorine, heat, moisture, dryness, soap and water, etc. affect its potency. What I hear is hand wringing – oh and some rather better speed at building hospitals than we can muster!

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    #40049
    Participant
    Ed P
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 13,902

    Snake Flu seems to be a contagious virus. The precautions so far recommended are similar to those for ordinary flu:

    The consensus appears to be that wearing a mask can limit – but not eliminate – the risks, provided they are used correctly. That means securing them over the mouth, chin and nose, using the bendable metal strip at the top to keep it snug against the contours of the nose.

    Experts say the best way to avoid germs, with coronavirus and other airborne illnesses, is to wash your hands thoroughly and frequently, try not to touch your face or eyes and avoid contact with people displaying symptoms.

    source Guardian

    Glasses may also offer some protection against virus splashes, but surgical gloves are not recommended as hand washing is supposedly better.

    I assume that the more worrying symptomless transmission is mainly through touching a contaminated surface (door handle, hand shake, kissing etc) and subsequent transfer to mouth/nose/eyes.

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    #40050
    Participant
    Ed P
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 13,902

    I just picked up this Wired article on Snake Flu – apparently Health Officials were warned  over the New Year. It has now been around for about a month and a LOT of potential vectors are flying around the world.

    Based on released Chinese data and a back of the envelope calculation about 30% of those infected will require intensive care, and about one in twenty of those infected will die.

    I’m not surprised that the UK is now starting to focus on how to manage large numbers of infected people, but I just cannot see them locking down Stansted, Heathrow and Gatwick in the way the Chinese have acted.

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    #40052
    Participant
    Bob Williams
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 12,109

    Read what CNN is saying:   http://tinyurl.com/tnat3ks

    Scroll down to the video “Viral Hoaxes are spreading lies about new virus.”

    The PRC has entered its normal totalitarian mode when faced with an internal crisis: (1) release no information that may reflect badly upon government agencies (2) release NO information. Result: people ignorant, self-important, self-deluded idiots take to social media with made up stories and fake news.

    If it’s the Psychic Network why do they need a phone number?

    What’s right is what’s left if you do everything else wrong.

    If women ran the world we wouldn’t have wars, just intense negotiations every 28 days.
    --- Robin Williams

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    #40053
    Participant
    Richard
    @sawboman
    Forumite Points: 6,433

    Bob, thank you, that read like a slightly better round up of the likely sources of information. It still does not answer how people become ‘infectious agents’ before they are symptomatic. I speculate that perhaps their initial source of the infection can remain viable on or about their person thus allowing it to spread. It is also possible that the so-called source 1 candidate might have been infected before day 1 thus allowing them to incubate and start distribution before they are symptomatic days later. They could just be slower to become ill, shades of Typhoid Mary come to mind. She never developed symptoms though she was a carrier and distributor for years.

    Too many unanswered questions, of which the greatest is, will its spread be stopped or slowed?

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    #40054
    Participant
    The VFM Addict
    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 2,490

    ………… Based on released Chinese data and a back of the envelope calculation about 30% of those infected will require intensive care, and about one in twenty of those infected will die.  …………….

    Clearly if those needing intensive care don’t get it then the death rate will move up very considerably from one in twenty.    Most countries’ capacity to provide intensive care is little more than is required in normal circumstances.    A major terror incident in London alone often comes close to swamping London’s capacity.     Its a total guess’timation on my part but I would be flabbergasted if even 10% of those needing intensive care were to ever get it if this virus to take off in the UK in large numbers.

    @Richard

    I cannot see it being stopped by containment; most experts are very doubtful that it will be.   Therefore there are only two possibilities.    Either a vaccine will be developed and that will usually take a year or so or it burns itself out.    It burns itself out when those infected have either developed immunity or died; that typically takes less than a year.    The Spanish Flu of 1918 infected a third of the world’s population and people traveled far less than today so think of a third of the world’s population as likely to be the minimum this time.

    _______________________________________________________________________________________

    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #40056
    Participant
    Ed P
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 13,902

    I think that Western Health Officials are in a ‘do not spread panic’ mode at the moment. However their advice to health professionals is a little more worrying.

    Paraphrasing: if you have cause for concern that the patient may have Snake Flu, flee and lock them inside the room before carrying on the rest of your examination by phone. The next stage is left moot!

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    #40081
    Participant
    Richard
    @sawboman
    Forumite Points: 6,433

    VFM, I doubt that containment will be the sole factor that could target success, but if carried out with rather draconian drive it could slow down the propagation. However, like so many problems that are hydra headed, it needs a multiple prong action plan. Maybe drugs, maybe vaccinations – with no exceptions on feeble grounds, maybe improved hygiene and so on.

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    #40085
    Participant
    Bob Williams
    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 12,109

    The thought had occurred to me that Asia is packed with dense populations: at my guess, around 1/3rd of the planet’s total human population. If the Corona virus gets really established there, those who believe that over population as the biggest problem that humanity faces may see it as a benefit.

    Then I started thinking about European cities. London, for example, has many thousands of multi-occupation housing blocks, how many I don’t think anyone really knows, just as the authorities do not know the real extent of illegal immigration. This is also true of other UK cities besides London.

    The world is a ticking time bomb and we should perhaps be grateful that Corona is not anywhere near as deadly as say, Yersinia pestis, the Black Death. The initial form, Bubonic Plague, is transmitted by rats and also by many other small animals and is bad enough. The second form of Yersinia, Pneumonic Plague, is much more infectious, being passed from person to person through breath, coughing and sneezing. The third form is a result of those infected being untreated or incorrectly treated: Septicaemic Plague. Both Pneumonic and Septicaemic Plague kill almost 100% of those infected.

    During mediaeval times, Yersinia wiped out approximately 35% of Europe’s population. Figures for the rest of the world are unavailable, but may have been less in those areas where it had been endemic previously, meaning those who recovered and lived had developed immunity and passed that immunity to the next generations. The evidence for such a large number of mediaeval deaths is all around me in rural Lincolnshire. As I take my occasional exploratory drives around our beautiful county, I see churches standing ruined for centuries in deserted landscapes, where villages no longer exist due to whole congregations dying. Aerial photographs during the last few dry seasons show the outlines of village housing that once stood to delineate a village or hamlet, and in a religious age, there was a church at each one.

    The last major outbreak happened in China in 1860, spread to the USA and was not finally eradicated until 1959. Different strains of the disease are still resident in small animals all over the world. There are cases in the USA every year.

    Should be enough to scare us all. I could write a disaster movie script.

    If it’s the Psychic Network why do they need a phone number?

    What’s right is what’s left if you do everything else wrong.

    If women ran the world we wouldn’t have wars, just intense negotiations every 28 days.
    --- Robin Williams

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    #40086
    Moderator
    The Duke
    @sgb101
    Forumite Points: 10,939

    Thb I don’t thin its worth worrying about, as if it happenes it happens.

    Side note, I’m 3/4 Thr way though Stephen Kings, The Stand. Happy coincidence or is their someting larger at play….. Lol.

    Really enjoying it BTW.

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    #40087
    Keymaster
    RSB
    @bdthree
    Forumite Points: 5,885

    It’s just a bird flue scare or a mad cow scare again. It will blow over after a year or so. “This is what I keep telling my self” None the less, I am stopping away from take-aways and making my own fake-aways 😉 🙂

    Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

    Forumite Donations Paypal.me/forumite

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    #40097
    Participant
    Ed P
    @edps
    Forumite Points: 13,902

    None the less, I am stopping away from take-aways and making my own fake-aways 😉 🙂

    +1 almost certainly cheaper and better!

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    #40098
    Keymaster
    RSB
    @bdthree
    Forumite Points: 5,885

    I am stopping away from take-aways and making my own fake-aways 😉 🙂

    This should be made in spme type of song or poem. 🙂

    Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

    Forumite Donations Paypal.me/forumite

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    #40099
    Keymaster
    RSB
    @bdthree
    Forumite Points: 5,885

    On an other note we have the euros or world cup comeing up soon at wembley and the chinese love english football fro what I can gather.

    Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

    Forumite Donations Paypal.me/forumite

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    #40100
    Keymaster
    RSB
    @bdthree
    Forumite Points: 5,885

    Made Sticky

    Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

    Forumite Donations Paypal.me/forumite

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Viewing 20 replies - 21 through 40 (of 269 total)
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