Pick Your Toast

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This topic contains 7 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by The VFM Addict 3 months, 1 week ago.

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  • #32518

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict

    I thought it might be interesting for folks on both sides of the Brexit argument to nominate a senior politician who they think will be toast come the next General Election.     My bet is Yvette Cooper.    Her seat voted 69.26% Leave and 30.74% Remain in the Brexit Ref.    I think even her 14,499 2017 majority could be insufficient to shield her.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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  • #32520

    dwynnehugh
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    @dwynnehugh
    Forumite Points: 890

    Come the next General Election, I really wonder how many of the ‘old guard’ will be there at all, we may end up with some 600 odd new MPs and to be honest could they do any worse than the shower there now?

    The more you meet people the more you understand why Noah took animals instead of humans

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    #32523

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    Yep, usually there are just one or two big heads, like when Portillo fell in 1997 or Clegg and Balls in 2015.   Come the next GE I suspect there will be a lot of household names losing their feeding place at the trough.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32524

    Dave Rice
    Moderator
    @ricedg
    Forumite Points: 2,275

    This doesn’t feel like a New Labour ousting the Tories moment, Yvette Cooper will be quite safe. It’s certainly not going to swing towards the UKIP types as far as seats go, we know that from past elections. There is only 1 standing in our area in the council elections so I’m not sure they’ll figure there either.

    You cannot predict anything from the Newport By Election and there are many more twists and turns to come before we get to a GE. We may still be in limbo, we may be out, we may have revoked, there could be a TM / Corbyn agreement, there will be a new Tory leader. All will move things in one way or another.

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    #32525

    Bob Williams
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    @bullstuff2
    Forumite Points: 3,325

    Yep, usually there are just one or two big heads, like when Portillo fell in 1997 or Clegg and Balls in 2015. Come the next GE I suspect there will be a lot of household names losing their feeding place at the trough.

    Actually, if you think about it, Clegg was emasculated by Cameron – ask any Uni ex – student still paying off fees.😊😂

    “If you think this Universe is bad, you should see some of the others.”
    ― Philip K. Dick, legendary SF writer.

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    #32534

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    Well spotted, Bob.    But to his advantage Google soon stepped with compensation to replace his googlies.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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    #32537

    Ed P
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    @edps
    Forumite Points: 3,559

    It was interesting watching the TV responses in Sheffield – many elderly people said they would not vote in another referendum or election as they were disillusioned – typically not good news for the Conservatives or Brexiteers.

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    #32549

    The VFM Addict
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    @thevfmaddict
    Forumite Points: 860

    Not so much a problem in another referendum but a much bigger problem in a GE is the Leave lobby being split.    The latest poll has UKIP at 7% and Farage’s new Brexit Party at 6%.     That’s a far higher total Eurosceptic vote (i.e. 13%) than ever before and will likely grow as the Brexit Party, that’s hardly off the ground yet, registers with more voters.    However, the split of the Eurosceptic vote between the two parties is in no Brexiteer’s favour.    The additional complication is that it would not be good if both took votes from a Eurosceptic MP from one of the main two parties and whom had a more realistic chance of winning the seat.     Come the next GE perhaps like never before very careful tactical voting could make a huge difference.

    All that said, assuming that the MEP elections come before a GE and given that such is based on proportional representation those elections should give us quite a good barometer of the size of current opinion and voting inertia re Brexit.

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    Here's hoping the Mad Tangerine of the West and the Mad Monk of the East stay friends or we're all in trouble

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