The VFM Addict

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  • I’ve been watching the currency markets very closely this morning.  If anything proves how uncertainty damages Sterling this morning was it.   Everyone knew May’s deal would be voted down (i.e. certainty) no real impact on the markets.   The very second May pulled the vote instant and staggeringly dramatic falls (i.e. uncertainty).

  • I suggest you read the actual judgement that was handed down.   It is well crafted to allow the ECJ to jump either way at a later stage when push comes to shove.  It is nowhere near as clear as you imply, Dave.  Go read it, folks.

     

  • Duke, the one point you seem to be missing is that the percentage of our exports going to the EU is falling year on year and our imports rising.   Our growth has been in countries outside the EU and usually with states were no EU trade deal even exists yet.   The EU also is set on a plan to hamper our biggest markets – Financial Services – by ins…[Read more]

  • What legislation are you referring to?

  • The VFM Addict replied to the topic Brexit now = CETA +/-? in the forum Europe 1 week ago

    If we get caught in the backstop such gives third countries who have trade deals with the EU tariff-free access to the UK market, but the UK does not enjoy reciprocal rights of access to those third country markets.   In other words, the UK domestic market becomes the EU’s to bestow at its pleasure, with tariffs set by the EU to suit the…[Read more]

  • The VFM Addict replied to the topic Brexit now = CETA +/-? in the forum Europe 1 week ago

    I wanted to reply specifically to this earlier post.    It is not a case of getting a better deal although often that would be possible.  Rather its getting more deals, more quickly.

    The problem with the EU is that each member state has its own interests.  For example, France would veto any trade deal on agricultural produce to protect its adva…[Read more]

  • The VFM Addict replied to the topic Brexit now = CETA +/-? in the forum Europe 1 week ago

    Let’s get real.   If we Remain and given the known general direction of the EU, Federalisation; then patently the EU can never let our ‘special terms’, a veto, no closer political union, big rebate, etc., stand for very long.  It’s the same argument as currently.  We cannot be seen to be getting better than the rest.    This was one of the things…[Read more]

  • The VFM Addict replied to the topic Brexit now = CETA +/-? in the forum Europe 1 week ago

    Errrmmm…. So each side picks its experts and publishes forecasts that back its own case.   Not much change from the status quo really.   I truly can’t see that healing the splits.  Moreover why a 5 year forecast rather than a 10 year or 20 year given that all sides are thinking of the consequences for their children and grandchildren?

    I’m not…[Read more]

  • The VFM Addict replied to the topic Brexit now = CETA +/-? in the forum Europe 1 week ago

    Well I think we can all agree that the divisions in the country over Brexit are as alive and well as they have been since pre-Maastricht.   I suspect they will remain so festering until a complete Brexit occurs and its viability is fully tested such as to settle the matter one way or the other.  Until either that occurs – or – the EU itself co…[Read more]

  • That’s not an unreasonable position to hold, Dave.   But even the consensus is at times wrong.   It was surely so about what would happen if we did not join the Euro a few years back.

    However, as I have said over and over Financial considerations alone were not what drove the Leave vote.   The question of full sovereignty and the direction of tr…[Read more]

  • Yes, and some predictions are rubbish.    The University of Cambridge Business School has just trashed the Treasury Predictions.   Take a look.

  • Dave, the last line of my post to which you refer was explicit that I was not assigning to you a view you do not hold.   It read: “Dave, I fully accept that such was not your intent but intended or not such was unquestionably the effect of your words.”   You can’t get clearer than that.   I stated I fully accepted that such was not your view…[Read more]

  • Do you truly not see it that you are calling them out as knowing nothing?     When you say they will be hit hardest you are obviously saying your vision of the future is correct and there’s is not.    You’re saying that you can predict and they cannot or you can tell which expert predictions are correct and they cannot.

    My background is in sal…[Read more]

  • Yes, Dave, all the areas that voted heavily for leave will be the most heaviest hit.  All those areas full of people too stupid to know what they were voting for…………………………     I wouldn’t say that in a North East Pub if I were you, matey.    They are sick and tired of being told they are stupid by Remainers and I don’t think…[Read more]

  • The statement while true EU wide is non sequitur at individual state level.   Redistribution of wealth is incentivised by the EU’s design and would suit the EU quite nicely.    The EU’s income would change not one iota.  We would pay less contributions but the smaller states pay more.

    We are a richer state than most states in the EU.   Redistr…[Read more]

  • If we accept May’s deal or Remain in the EU we are at the mercy of the EU which will cherry pick this country dry.  Why would they not do so in their own best interests?     Plainly we either could never leave (i.e. May’s Deal) or would never leave (i.e. we Remained) no matter what they did.   Tell me, if we chose to Remain what would be the ter…[Read more]

  • I think what got my goat is that Mark Carney said he was not making predictions but looking at scenarios.    If that was so he’d have included models of various best scenarios too, but those didn’t get a look in.   He looked only at Doom and a little less Doom.    No consideration of the trade potential from various countries looking to do trade…[Read more]

  • That argument doesn’t hold water.   May was elected by a predominantly Remainer party and not by the less number of Eurosceptics MPs.    That is why a Remainer (i.e. May) was crowned.   No point in any Brexiteer standing because the Remainer MPs would never have let that person onto the last two list for party members to elect.   If BoJo had…[Read more]

  • Come on now.  You know that May gave Davis and Raab no power and had Olly Robbins negotiating behind their backs.   Naturally Davis got nowhere because the EU knew he had no power because May was working through Robbins.   And shame on you because surely you know you’ll always get massacred in any negotiation if the other side can see you do not…[Read more]

  • Vassalage is an emotive term but in this case reasonably accurate.   Do not confuse it with slavery. The terms have totally different meanings.

    I had a chat with two young couples the night before last that had bought into May’s charade.   So, OK, they weren’t Remainers, they just wanted Brexit to be finished and stop dominating everyth…[Read more]

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